Prices at Christmas!

Nov 07, 2016 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

Heaven help us this Christmas! The price of eggs has already passed $900 per tray. It is likely to reach $1200 per tray by the time the cake-baking season peaks.
It might be more economical for persons to buy their own sponge and fruit cake this Christmas from the bakeries. But that will take away from the spirit of the season. You cannot really have Christmas without the smell and taste of homemade sponge and fruit and black cake.
The price of preserved fruits used in the making of fruit and black cake has remained stable. The preserved fruits are all imported. With demand likely to peak, there should be a spike in the cost of fruits.
The price of cut chicken in the supermarkets is now over $400 per lb. A few years ago, there was concern when at Christmas time, the price of chicken had reached $300 per lb. The price has now consistently stayed above $400 per lb.
Consumers have not complained and no attempt has been made to bring the price down despite Guyana now being self- sufficient in chicken. If the price hits $500 by Christmas, there will be gnashing of teeth and wailing.
The rich of course will have their imported turkey and ham. The price of ham is unaffordable to the poor in Guyana. The supermarkets will have ham but how many poor people can afford.
The poor cannot switch to fish on Christmas day. The wholesale price of snapper is now over $500 per lb. The retail prices, depending on the cuts, can reach as a high as $800 per lb., or twice that of the price of chicken.
The price of fish will drop at Christmas because of the fall in demand – Christmas is a meat eating season- but fish is still likely to be retailed at a higher price than chicken.
This means that there is no alternative for the poor who may want to have a more affordable Christmas lunch.
The poor may be hoping for an increase in income this Christmas. The construction sector however is not as robust as before.
Persons are delaying the usual Christmas repairs because they are not quite certain how the economy is going to perform. They also are concerned about increased cost of land which could adversely affect the agricultural sector.
The government has paid its increase to workers retroactively. Traditionally, the government had paid the back pay at Christmas time. This allowed the workers to enjoy themselves over the Christmas.
The new government had promised that they would impose wage increases on workers. They have done exactly that.
They have paid the increases, however, one month earlier. The workers may end up spending their back pay even before the holidays in the hope that like last year, the government will give a bonus to all workers.
The workers had better not gamble on that. Even if there is a bonus, it is not likely to be more than $50 000 per person. That is not going to be sufficient to compensate for the increases in prices that we are seeing for Christmas.
The other sources of increased spending in the economy at Christmas are tourist arrivals and increased remittances. In the case of tourist arrivals, Guyanese came home in their droves for the Jubilee celebrations.
Many of them saw this as a show of support for the APNU+AFC and so many of them borrowed heavily on their credit cards to come back to Guyana. They are not likely to come back for Christmas.
There are many others who did not come for the Jubilee who would love to come home to enjoy a traditional Christmas, but who are scared hell of those young boys who are robbing and shooting people. We may well therefore have a lower level of tourist arrivals in 2016 than we did last year.
As for remittances, the official numbers indicate that this is falling significantly and therefore Guyanese at home must expect a shortfall in the usual remittances they receive at Christmas.
The one thing that will be available in abundance and very cheap at Christmas is rum. There is never a shortage of this and it is always affordable.

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