Guyana emerging as key gateway in shifting Cuban migration patterns – IOM report

Mar 24, 2026 News

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(Kaieteur News) – Guyana has been identified as one of the Caribbean and South American countries growing in importance as a primary entry point for Cuban migrants, as new migration dynamics reshape movement across Latin America.

Recent findings from the International Organization for Migration (IOM), through its Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM), show that Cuban mobility between 2025 and early 2026 has become more complex, with migrants increasingly utilising both regular and irregular routes. Among the countries gaining prominence are Guyana, Venezuela and Brazil, signalling a notable southward shift in migration pathways.

According to the report, while northbound movement toward Central America and ultimately North America continues, there is a clear diversification in routes. Migrants are no longer relying solely on traditional overland corridors but are also travelling by air into South America, with Guyana emerging as a strategic point of entry. “These trends show that Latin America is no longer just a corridor for Cuban migrants, but is increasingly becoming their intended home,” said María Moita, IOM Regional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean. “Behind these numbers are people making difficult decisions about where they can rebuild their lives. Data collected on the ground every day helps governments respond with practical, evidence-based migration policies that reflect these realities.”

The findings, covering the period from January 2025 to February 2026, draw on three complementary sources: IOM’s DTM, which conducts systematic field surveys of migrants at key transit and destination points across the region; irregular migration statistics compiled by the governments of Honduras and Guatemala; and official regular migration figures from Brazil and Uruguay.

According to the IOM, the DTM survey, conducted among Cubans in Costa Rica during January and February 2026, found that 94 per cent intended to stay in the country, citing better economic conditions, political stability, and access to international protection. IOM data also suggests that demand for immigration regularization and asylum procedures is likely to remain high.

At the same time, northbound movements through parts of Central America are declining sharply. In Honduras, Cuban irregular entries from Nicaragua fell by around 75 per cent, from 64,000 in 2024 to 17,000 in 2025. In the first two months of 2026, only 1,500 arrivals were recorded – less than a quarter of the figure reported during the same period in 2025. In Guatemala, all Cubans surveyed identified economic reasons as the main driver for leaving their country.

South America is also emerging as an increasingly important destination for Cubans. In Brazil, net regular Cuban migration nearly tripled between 2024 and 2025, rising from roughly 2,100 to 6,400 people, with no single month in 2025 recording a negative balance. Cubans typically enter through Venezuela or Guyana, where no visa is required, before crossing into Brazil’s northern state of Roraima.  A similar trend is visible in Uruguay, where the average monthly net migration balance more than doubled, from around 500 Cubans in 2024 to over 1,200 in 2025, further underscoring the region’s growing role as a destination rather than a transit route.  Drawing on data from more than 20 countries across Latin America and the Caribbean, the analysis tracks evolving routes, motivations, and settlement trends. This mixed-method approach provides governments with a timely, evidence-based picture of how and why these dynamics are changing.  DTM is the most comprehensive human mobility data infrastructure in Latin America and the Caribbean, with operations in more than 20 countries. Its data informs migration policy design, regional migration governance coordination mechanisms, and humanitarian response planning, the IOM report stated.

The CNN recently wrote, that Cuba may be experiencing the most profound moment of economic uncertainty that the island’s residents have endured in decades if not over their entire lives. Through military action in Venezuela and threats of tariffs on Mexico, the Trump administration has shut off the flow of oil to Cuba, attempting to strong-arm the communist-run island into making significant political and economic reforms. Cuba does not appear to have any remaining allies willing to supply the hundreds of millions of dollars-worth of fuel needed to power the economy.

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• gateway, migration, migration patterns, shifting Cuban

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