The danger of sprinting through a marathon

Nov 20, 2024 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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…Peeping Tom

Kaieteur News- There is an old Guyanese adage, “One, one dutty does build dam.” It speaks to the wisdom of steady, deliberate progress, of laying each block carefully so the structure can stand firm against time and tide.

But in the lexicon of our country’s economic leadership, this proverb has seemingly been cast aside. The finance minister likens our economic trajectory to running a marathon at sprint pace—a metaphor that may sound exhilarating but is fraught with peril. The President echoes this sentiment, as if to suggest that the breakneck pace of development is both inevitable and desirable. Yet history, economics, and common sense tell a different story: this is a dangerous and ill-conceived strategy, one that courts the very failures we hope to leave behind.

The first and most immediate danger of sprinting through a marathon is the risk of overheating. Economically, overheating refers to a situation where demand outpaces supply, leading to inflation, labour shortages, and overburdened infrastructure. Already, the signs are apparent. Construction materials have skyrocketed in price, skilled labour is in short supply, and wages in certain sectors are rising faster than productivity.

This is akin to a marathon runner burning out before the halfway mark, muscles cramping, breath short, unable to maintain the pace. When an economy overheats, it sets the stage for a hard landing—a rapid slowdown that brings growth to a screeching halt. For a country like Guyana, which is pinning its hopes on long-term prosperity, this is a risk we cannot afford to take.

The second flaw in this sprint mentality is the lack of room for adjustment. Economic development is rarely a straight path; it requires course corrections, the careful identification of mistakes, and the space to remedy them. But when the pace of development becomes a runaway train, there is no time to step back and reassess. Decisions are made hastily, projects are rushed, and inefficiencies and corruption.

Guyana’s economy, though buoyed by oil, remains vulnerable to external shocks. Global oil prices fluctuate wildly, supply chains can be disrupted by geopolitical crises, and environmental disasters loom large over a low-lying nation like ours. Moving at a reckless pace magnifies the impact of these shocks. Imagine a marathoner sprinting headlong down a path only to stumble over an unforeseen obstacle—the fall is far more catastrophic than if they had been jogging steadily.

A measured pace allows for the building of economic buffers—foreign reserves, diversified income streams, and resilient infrastructure—that can cushion the blow of external disruptions. By prioritizing speed, we are undermining over sustainability and placing ourselves at the mercy of forces beyond our control.

Rapid development also risks deepening social inequality. While the economy expands at breakneck speed, not all Guyanese are benefiting equally. The distribution of wealth in our society, already skewed in favour of the rich, will become more distorted under conditions of breakneck speed of development. This can have the effect of kindling for future instability. True prosperity requires inclusive growth that lifts all citizens, not just those who can keep pace with the sprint.

Institutions are the bedrock of sustainable development. But institutions cannot grow overnight. They require time to mature, to adapt to new challenges, and to develop the capacity to manage complex systems. One of the reasons why there are problems with delays in the public sector investment programme, has to do with the fact that while the size of that programme has expanded, the capacity-building to manage and monitor such an expanded programme has not kept apace. This is what the President did not see and why he had to call his early-morning meeting with Ministers, Permanent Secretaries, engineers and contractors. Pushing an economy forward at sprint pace overwhelms existing systems institutions, leading to mismanagement, inefficiency, and the erosion of public trust. The very foundation upon which economic progress rests becomes unstable.

Guyana’s oil production strategy is unmistakably set on an ill-advised course: pump as much as we can, as fast as we can, with little regard for a coherent, data-driven depletion policy.  Without a written depletion policy, we risk draining our reserves at a breakneck pace, leaving future generations with diminished wealth. Rapid extraction exacerbates environmental risk. By sprinting toward maximum production, we are squandering a finite resource.

History is littered with cautionary tales of nations that prioritized rapid growth at the expense of sustainability. The Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s exposed the vulnerabilities of economies that expanded too quickly without adequate regulatory oversight. Closer to home, Venezuela’s reliance on oil wealth without diversifying its economy has left it in economic and social ruin. The lesson is clear: sprinting through a marathon leads not to victory but to collapse.

The Guyanese saying, “One, one dutty does build dam,” reminds us that small, steady, and purposeful steps are the surest path to prosperity. This is not an argument against ambition or progress—it is a plea for prudence. Let us prioritize quality and equality over speed, ensuring that every project, every policy, is designed to stand the test of time.

A marathon is not won in the first few miles; it is won by those who pace themselves, who conserve their energy, and who finish strong. For the sake of our future, let us embrace the wisdom of steady progress.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)

(The danger of sprinting through a marathon)

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• Construction materials, economic leadership, economic trajectory, Finance Minister, Peeping Tom

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