‘America, Guyana and tomorrow’

Nov 18, 2024 Letters

---

Dear Editor

In 1994, white Americans made up about 85% of the population; today they are about 65% with thousands of new immigrants lurking at the border. Between 2010 and 2022, the share of the Hispanic/Latino population of the USA, the largest immigrant sector, grew to about 19.1% while the white population had the largest decrease, dropping by about 5%.

About 77% of immigrants arrived in the USA illegally, with some 3 million given permission to live and work there in 2022 (Pew Research Center and NBC exit poll date mainly used here). Somewhat unfairly, since the congressional Republican party appears to have deliberately stymied its proposed border policy, the present Joe Biden Democratic government is widely perceived as being unable to prevent the influx of immigrants.

In my view, as an electoral issue, immigration has for some time trumped other concerns having to do with the economy, same sex marriage, abortion etc., and has given Donald Trump, who has exploited this concern to win and hold the support of most of the white demographic who feel that they are being politically marginalised. But apart from this, the 2024 electoral behaviour of two other ethnic groups – African Americans and Hispanics – among whom the Republican party also increased its support, is also related to the level of immigration.

In their attitudes towards immigration, 20% of whites and 43% of blacks believe that illegal immigrants should be eligible for social services while 67% of whites and 79% of blacks think the children of illegal immigrants should be permitted to attend public schools. About 47% of whites believe that illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay in the county while the same percentage of blacks believe illegal immigrants should be deported. 33% of Hispanics believe that increasing deportation of the illegal immigrants will decease the numbers coming to the border. More importantly, 34% of blacks to 25% of whites felt that immigrants have taken jobs away from American rather than – as is usually claimed – taking jobs that Americans don’t want. 78% of Africans and some 54% and 55% of Hispanics and whites say jobs are difficult to find in their communities.

In the 2020 presidential elections, 67% of whites turned out and voted 41% for Biden and 58% for Trump. It may surprise some that given Trump’s behavioural history, Ms. Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, did not improve upon the percentage of white votes going to the Democrats. On an increased turnout of 71% in 2024, Harris and Trump still received similar percentages of the votes as in 2020: 41% and 57%. Of course, accustomed to ethnic voting, Guyanese should not be surprised that ethnic party leadership can do almost anything without suffering politically. Indeed, Donald Trump alluded to this when he pronounced some years ago that he could get away with shooting someone on 5th Avenue, New York, in broad daylight.

Of course, voting ethnically is not the problem: in the 2012 elections 93% of African Americans voted for President Barack Obama.  The problem arises when, as in Guyana, the ‘other side’ is of sufficient size, is perceived as an enemy and has grown into a group ‘for itself’. Fortunately, unlike Guyana, USA has many strong constitutional checks and balances, e.g. an actual system of the separation of powers, federalism and the electoral college, to hinder such ethnic expressions but for how long?

Many perceive African Americans as permanently wedded to the Democratic party, but this is not so. As a relatively small ethnic minority their political attachments were very transactional: concerned with how a party rule rather than with which party rule as in Guyana. Up to about the late 1930s, equal percentages of African and whites voted republican. After all, it was a Republican president, Abraham Lincoln, who led the civil war that put an end slavery. But since then, the Republicans have not got more than 40% of the black vote as it was Democratic President Harry Truman who made an explicit strategic appeal to US Congress for new civil rights measures that included a federal ban on lynching, bolstering existing civil rights laws including voter protection measures and the desegregation of the U.S. military was to follow in 1948. Following this, a long political struggle in Congress culminated in the 1964 Civil Rights Act. Upon signing this bill, Democratic President Lyndon Johnson is reported to have said that Democrats would lose the South for a generation: it has been longer than that as Republicans sought to solidify their ethnic base!

In 2020, on a 13% turnout, the Democrats won 87% of African votes against the Republicans’ 12% and in 2024 on an 11% turnout the figures were 85% and 13% respectively. Note too that 50% of African Americans are living in low-income households and those with a family income of under $50,000 annually moved from 56% for Biden and 43% for Trump in 2020 to 47% for Harris and 50% for Trump in 2024. Non college graduates also voted away from the Democrats with 48% Biden to 50% for Trump in 2020 to 42% and 56% for Harris and Trump respectively in 2024. Given the transactionalist backdrop above, both the lower turnout and the percentage turn to the Republicans of Africans are understandable since the Democrat party appeared unable to deal with the immigration problem that is perceived to be inordinately economically affecting black communities.

Donald Trump has been persistently berating and denigrating the Hispanics and their countries, even threatening their mass deportation. What is surprising is the substantial increase of this demographic for the Republicans.  In 2020, 65% of them voted for the Democrats and 32% for the Republicans, but in 2024 their support for the Democrats dropped to 52% and increased to 46% for the Republicans. We have already noted that the Hispanic community is also being economically affected by immigration and that 1/3 of them believe that illegal immigrants should be deported. Indeed, one writer argued that more and more Latinos are turning against the newcomers because there is also a ‘desire to prove their Americanness’  (www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/09/).

While his previous behaviour is the appropriate starting place, one cannot conclude what the new Donald Trump administration will do based merely upon its history and what was said during the election campaign. The existing context is also important and among others: 1. Trump is a second term president who does not have to face the electorate again. 2. Only two years of relative congressional freedom is certain: midterms always arrive quickly. 3. Much of American strength rests in its democratic arrangements and the ‘soft power’ that has brought immigrants to its doors, and both will have to be sensibly managed. 3. He cannot and should not totally walk away from some of his promises such as that on immigration. 4. He has personally gone through quite a lot and must now have a better grasp of the true nature and strength of American political institutions. 5. On my understanding, even a few of the current legal cases against him can reoccur once his term is over as he cannot pardon himself. 6. Among others, his transactional foreign policy, particularly with traditional allies, such as the European Union and NATO, will have to be ameliorated if he is to win their confidence and support and actually ‘make America great again!’

Where Guyana/US relations are concerned, in ‘Western unity and bipartisanship’ (VV: 28/10/2024. KN: 28/10/2024) I argued that finding solutions to the political problems of countries rooted in ethnic conflict such as Guyana, usually depend on the ethnic political elites but finding consensus among this group is normally difficult to achieve without some external help. To project maximum international pressure and mitigate the negative effects of election cycles, such aid needs to be located in long-term international alliances and national bipartisanship. Past behaviour suggests that Donald Trump understands this, but a new day beckons.

Sincerely

Dr. Henry Jeffrey

‘America, Guyana and tomorrow’

---

• /Latino population, Pew Research Center and NBC, USA illegally, white Americans

---