Guyanese and today’s American Presidential Elections

Nov 05, 2024 Letters

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Dear Editor

USA Presidential elections will culminate on Tuesday.  Guyanese Americans are in the thick of the contest. Unlike previous elections, Guyanese will see their strongest or highest turnout. Guyanese are divided in their vote. About a third is supporting The Republican Donald Trump and the rest Democrat Kamala Devi Harris as per conversations with many of them. A survey of African Americans (under whom Guyanese Africans are grouped) has Harris leading Trump 80-20. A survey of Indian and Asian Americans has Harris leading 35-65. Indian Guyanese are grouped under Asian and Indian Americans.

Almost every Guyanese, as queried by this writer, plans to vote. Many already voted. In America, early voting is allowed thru last Saturday in most states. Many millions of Americans already voted. Exit polls suggest a tight contest with Democrats having the edge of those already voted. In the past, Republicans tend to have the edge on the actual day of voting. If one did not already vote, then he or she can vote on Tuesday. Most Americans vote on election day which is the first (or second) Tuesday in the month of November every four years.

There are two main Presidential candidates, or nominees, of their political parties. There are also over a dozen candidates of minor parties and independents. The winner will come from one of the two major parties – former President Donald Trump (Republican) and Vice President Kamala Devi Harris representing the Democratic Party. All the more than a dozen opinion polls suggest a dead heat, meaning the election can go either way. Those Guyanese who support Trump feel he will win. Those supporting Harris are unsure.

In the USA, unlike in Guyana, elections are not determined by popular votes but by victories in each of the 50 states and Washington DC. Each state tends to be Republican or Democrat, not dissimilar to areas in Guyana where people vote for PPP or PNC. The American elections is determined by electoral votes (EVs) with each state assigned a number of EVs based on the size of its Congressional delegation. The winner of the state elections is assigned all its EVs except in two states where it is based on winning districts in the state. The EVs are aggregated for the winner of each state. A nominee needs 270 of 538 EVs to win the Presidency. No candidate as yet has a majority EVs based on opinion polls.

Analysts conclude that seven states will determine the outcome of the elections. These are called swing or battleground states. Polls have them in a dead head. A few of these swing states used to be Democratic or Republican. Because of population migration, they have become swing states, meaning they can go either way and changed hands in last few elections. Donald Trump won them in 2016 but lost them and the Presidency in 2020. In order to recapture the Presidency, Trump needs to win at least three plus Pennsylvania among the seven states.

Polls put Kamala Harris ahead in four of them by one percent, a dead heat. Trump leads in two states by one percent. One state is tied. What is surprising in this election is that states known to be Democratic has Trump leading and states known to be Republican have Harris leading or tied. Nevada is a small state and may not impact the outcome. Either candidate that wins three of these seven states wins the Presidency. It is possible for a candidate to sweep all seven. A shocker is a new poll that put Harris ahead in Iowa; that is unexpected as it has been a solid Republican state. This writer places it in the Trump column although Harris leads in the latest poll.

It seems that Trump can win Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona but will still run short of the required 270 EVs; he will need to win Pennsylvania to win the Presidency. It appears that Harris will win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, but needs Pennsylvania to win the Presidency. Harris can win the Presidency without winning Nevada; she must win Pennsylvania. Both candidates are focusing on Pennsylvania. Analysts say whoever wins PA wins the election. A candidate can win the Presidency without winning PA. He or she must win four of the other major states. If Harris win Iowa, then she will sweep the Presidency. The outcome is expected to be close in many states. Trump has increased his support in traditional democratic states.

Guyanese could influence the outcome of the elections. Most of them live in NY and Florida. The Democrats will win NY and Republicans FL. There are small numbers of Guyanese in the other states such as Georgia, North Carolina, and PA with smaller numbers in Michigan and Neavad and Georgia. Hardly any Guyanese live in Arizonia. Every vote matters. Every Guyanese American is urged to vote. The stakes are high and the whole world is focusing on this election as it determines the outcome of the leader of the world. Guyanese politicians are also paying keen interest. One party prefers Trump while two other parties prefer Harris.

Yours faithfully,

Dr. Vishnu Bisram

(Guyanese and today’s American Presidential Elections)

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• Asian Americans, Guyanese Americans, Harris leading Trump, Washington DC

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