Will Jagdeo prefer a poll instead?

Nov 03, 2024 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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…Peeping Tom

Kaieteur News- When it comes to elections in Guyana, one thing is clear: we don’t need any more excitement. Elections in Guyana are already a high-stakes, heart-pounding, nail-biting extravaganza—complete with international observers, the possibility of multiple ballot recounts, accusations flying left right and center, and tension you could cut with a knife.

And now, some well-meaning souls are suggesting we throw in a referendum question about whether to renegotiate the oil contract? Now, I am as pro-democracy as the next person, but even I think this idea might be biting off more than the Guyanese electorate could chew.

Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo, who recently cautioned against adding a referendum question to next year’s general and regional elections, has a point. And, as someone who deeply values brevity in electoral processes, I agree.

The idea is well-intentioned—who wouldn’t want a straightforward “yes” or “no” on renegotiating the oil deal? But, alas, reality has a way of complicating even the simplest ideas.

Let’s imagine for a moment that, in addition to deciding on parliamentary and regional leadership, voters are now asked to weigh in on whether the ExxonMobil contract should be renegotiated. You’re telling me this won’t complicate the electoral process? Suddenly, voters have to be tasked with understanding royalty rates, profit-sharing percentages, and ring fencing.

Guyanese elections are already so tense that people wait with bated breath, some camping outside polling stations just to “make sure everything goes smoothly.” The last thing we need is to add another layer of tension. What happens when voters cast their ballots and then wait for days—possibly weeks—for not only election results but referendum tallies? In a country where patience runs as thin as the butter on my morning toast, this wait could feel like purgatory. Election night would become Election Fortnight, and social media would ignite with conspiracy theories, delays, and, naturally, a lot of finger-pointing.

Even if we could muster the willpower to add a referendum question, the nature of the question could indeed sway voters’ choices. Think about it: Asking “Should the oil contract be renegotiated?” could influence people toward or against particular parties based on their stances. The People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPPC) isn’t exactly clamoring to renegotiate. Some voters might look at the “Yes” or “No” box on renegotiation and think, “Hmm, maybe this issue is more important than I thought.” Now, I’m no mind reader, but given that the topic of oil contracts could very well sway votes, it’s fair to say that throwing a referendum on this particular ballot could inadvertently tilt the scales. After all, voters might think they’re voting on oil, but end up voting for parties based solely on how “pro-renegotiation” they seem.

Now, if you ask me, there’s a much simpler solution: conduct a representative opinion poll. Let’s clarify, though, that I’m talking about a real opinion poll, not some online tally that anybody with a working internet connection can click on from their computer or phone. Chris Ram’s recent online poll is an example of what not to do. The poll might have garnered a whopping 94% in favor of renegotiation, but, for one thing, the respondents were not a representative sample of the Guyanese public.

For a poll to have legitimacy, we need a balanced, randomly selected cross-section of the population. Let me emphasize here, it’s not the sample size that’s the issue—Ram could’ve had 10,000 responses, and his sample still wouldn’t be representative. But this does not mean that Ram’s poll is not reflective of public sentiment.

A 2019 poll by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) showed us how to do it right. They surveyed 740 “likely voters” across a demographically accurate breakdown (39% Indians, 30% Africans, 20% Mixed, 10% Amerindians, 1% other groups), with a margin of error of only 4%. That’s a statistical home run in the world of polling.

In that 2019 poll, 82% of participants favored renegotiation, which, as far as public sentiment goes, speaks volumes. Add a few years of oil discoveries, environmental concerns, and growing national awareness of the economic stakes, and the “renegotiation” camp might be even larger now. Therefore, in as much as we might want to dismiss Ram’s 90 plus percentage support for renegotiation, it is a plausible number taking all factors, including Bisram’s poll, into consideration.

However, while we need to listen to the people on the issue of oil contracts, let’s not complicate things with a referendum at the next election. The purpose of elections is to elect leaders, not to overload voters with more decisions than they can reasonably make in a day.

Let’s keep our election streamlined and save the referendum questions for another time. Adding a referendum on the oil contract might seem like an easy solution, but in practice, it’s likely to cause more problems than it solves. Jagdeo is right on that score!

(Will Jagdeo prefer a poll instead?)

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• Elections in Guyana, oil contract, pro-democracy, renegotiating, Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo

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