Guyana’s shift into the US orbit

Oct 19, 2024 Peeping Tom

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Kaieteur News – For decades, Guyana prided itself on an independent foreign policy, one that allowed it to punch above its weight on the international stage. This independence was not just symbolic but represented a deep-seated conviction in charting a path that served the country’s interests rather than being tethered to the whims of any global superpower.

However, the present reality paints a different picture. Guyana’s foreign policy, long regarded as one of the hallmarks of its governance, has steadily been eroded, replaced by a pro-Western orientation that has firmly placed the country in the orbit of the United States.

This shift has not been subtle. It has been propelled by two major events that have altered the trajectory of Guyana’s external relations. The first was the political crisis that surrounded the 2020 General and Regional Elections. In the aftermath of the vote, Guyana teetered on the brink of an undemocratic outcome. Elements within the then-government made attempts to manipulate the results and cling to power. These efforts might have succeeded, if not for the decisive intervention of the United States, which threatened to impose sanctions. This external pressure proved pivotal, forcing those bent on undermining the democratic process to back down.

It is not lost on observers that the threat of US sanctions, rather than the internal mechanisms of democracy, helped preserve the 2020 election results. The US intervention was not without consequences. The current government, haunted by the spectre of a similar attempt by the Opposition to subvert future elections, has subtly shifted its stance, relying on the United States as a guarantor of electoral integrity. In doing so, Guyana’s leadership has essentially outsourced a portion of its democratic vigilance to Washington, tacitly acknowledging that American pressure is indispensable to preventing a repeat of the 2020 crisis.

Yet, electoral concerns are not the only factor driving Guyana closer to the United States. The looming territorial threat from Venezuela, Guyana’s western neighbour, has shaped its foreign policy posture significantly. For decades, Venezuela has maintained a claim over a significant portion of Guyana’s territory, and recent actions from Caracas have exacerbated tensions. In response, Georgetown has increasingly looked to Washington for support, recognizing that US backing is crucial to deterring Venezuelan aggression, especially considering US economic interests in the country emerging oil sector.

The United States, through its Southern Command, has deepened its military cooperation with Guyana, conducting joint exercises and engaging in high-level security discussions. This collaboration is presented as a necessary step to safeguard Guyana’s sovereignty, but it also comes at the cost of foreign policy flexibility. By anchoring itself to US military support, Guyana has effectively limited its ability to maneuver independently on the international stage, especially when such maneuvering risks antagonizing Washington.

Nowhere is this more evident than in Guyana’s weak-kneed stance on the Middle East. As the conflict between Israel and Palestine rages on, Georgetown’s position has been carefully calibrated to avoid offending the United States, which remains a staunch ally of Israel. While the Guyanese government has condemned the atrocities in the region, it has stopped short of adopting a stance that might irk its American partners. It knows very well that a two-state solution is dead with Israel seeking to exterminate the Palestinians. Yet the Guyana government continues with its plea for a two-state solution and an end to atrocities knowing fully well that the balance of power has long shifted in the region away from such solutions.  This cautious approach stands in stark contrast to the bolder positions Guyana might have taken in the past, during a time when it was less concerned with the preferences of its allies in Washington.

For a country that once prided itself on a non-aligned stance, Guyana’s diplomatic posture today is distinctly pro-Western. In courting US support, whether for electoral security or defence against external threats, Guyana has sacrificed the very independence that once defined its foreign policy.

Critics might argue that this alignment with the United States is a pragmatic response to the challenges facing the country. After all, with the memory of a near-democratic collapse and the Venezuelan threat looming large, it is understandable that Guyana would seek powerful allies. Yet, this pragmatism comes with a price. By tethering itself so closely to the United States, Guyana has ceded some of the very autonomy that allowed it to navigate the complexities of international relations on its terms.

It is worth noting that this shift in foreign policy is not without historical irony. The United States, which Guyana now courts, was once viewed with suspicion during the Cold War era. Back then, Guyana’s leaders fiercely guarded their right to chart an independent course, often clashing with Washington over regional and global issues. Today, that caution has been replaced by a willingness to embrace US influence as a stabilizing force.

This transformation raises important questions about the future of Guyana’s foreign policy. Can a country that has anchored its diplomatic strategy to the preferences of a single superpower still claim to be truly independent?

Guyana finds itself in a delicate position. While the United States may provide a measure of security and stability, the embrace of such a relationship carries inherent risks. The more Guyana aligns itself with American interests, the less leverage it has in international forums where its voice once resonated independently. The pro-Western tilt may offer short-term gains, but it also risks diminishing Guyana’s ability to act as an independent actor in the long run.

The pivot towards Washington might be a strategic necessity for Guyana, but it marks the end of an era. The days when Guyana’s foreign policy was driven by principles of non-alignment and independence are over. What remains is a country whose strategic choices are increasingly shaped by its ties to the United States—a far cry from the independent path it once championed.

(Guyana’s shift into the US orbit)

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)  

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• Guyana’s, leadership, neighbour, superpower, Venezuelan, Washington

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