Irfaan Ali’s dilemma and the shadow of Jagdeo

Sep 18, 2024 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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Kaieteur News – If history is to be trusted, the bourgeoisie of any society has always been marked by unity of purpose. Their economic interests, control of capital, and appetite for expanding influence provide them with a solid foundation upon which they can stand together, no matter the political climate.

Guyana’s bourgeois class is no different—united in its pursuit of profits, patronage, and policies that ensure its financial well-being. This group has long aligned itself with the People’s Progressive Party Civic (PPP/C), the ruling party they support, influence, and essentially control.

Yet, beneath this superficial unity, fault lines are beginning to show. The once-cohesive oligarchic subset of the bourgeois class is starting to fracture. In a curious twist of history, the seeds of discontent are emerging. The leadership of the PPP/C, under the administration of President Irfaan Ali, is beginning to look unsettlingly familiar to what existed in the past. This is sparking anxieties about the future of the government.

The unease is fueled by memories of the pre-2011 PPP/C regime, headed by Bharrat Jagdeo—a government that became sufficiently discredited by the time of the 2011 elections. Sufficient numbers of PPP/C supporters either did not vote or supported the AFC, and this led to a PPP/C minority regime in 2011, and, ultimately, to the PPP/C’s loss of power in 2015.

Elements in the bourgeois class now fear that the Irfaan Ali administration is beginning to bear an uncanny resemblance to the Jagdeo years. While Jagdeo’s return to the government as a Vice President was seen as a means of assuaging the bourgeois class that its interests will be protected under the new government, paradoxically, Jagdeo’s high-profile presence has begun to overshadow the leadership of President Ali and to unsettle elements in the bourgeois class.

There are elements within the powerful bourgeois class who wish to see a clear differentiation between the present administration and the discredited regime of the past. They want to see this while ensuring that their interests are not threatened. The fear is that if the present government looks and smells like the pre-2011 PPP government, then the same fallout that took place in 2011, could reoccur.

Jagdeo, it appears, has become his party’s principal spokesperson. But he has also become the main mouthpiece of the government. President Ali’s voice is being drowned out by the omnipresent Jagdeo. Elements within the bourgeois class feel some unease at this situation and the electoral repercussions that can result especially from a young electorate who may feel that Ali is being overshadowed. Some elements within this elite group are beginning to wonder whether their continued patronage of the PPP/C, in its current form, is in their best interests.

In particular, they fear that a Jagdeo-dominated administration will alienate the non-traditional supporters of the PPP/C—those who were won over by Ali’s promises of a more inclusive governance model. If the Ali administration begins to resemble too much the regime of Jagdeo’s past, it could easily cost the PPP/C the support of these new, critical voters, and ultimately undermine the PPP/C’s electoral dominance that has kept the bourgeoisie’s interests protected for decades. This growing schism is rooted in the very dynamics of power and influence that define the Guyanese bourgeoisie. There is growing discontent among some major financiers of the party who had hoped that under President Ali, the government would pivot away from the unpopular practices of Jagdeo’s era. Yet, they now find themselves confronting a situation that appears all too familiar.

Elements within the oligarchic elite want a more assertive president, someone who can balance the interests of the old guard with the aspirations of a younger, more progressive generation of Guyanese voters. The specter of Jagdeo haunts them because it represents a return to a political and economic model that led to the toppling of the PPP/C in the first place.

To put it bluntly, the bourgeoisie is not interested in nostalgia. They are interested in winning elections, securing contracts, and ensuring the stability of the country’s business climate. What they do not want is a repeat of the discredited, policies that alienated so many voters in the 2011 and 2015 elections.

What we are witnessing, therefore, is a class once unified by economic interests, now being fragmented by political insecurities. The stakes are high. If the PPP/C government cannot differentiate itself from its past, and if Ali cannot distinguish himself from Jagdeo, the ruling party risks losing its grip on power in future elections.

The bourgeoisie is all too aware of this. And herein lies the heart of the schism—while they continue to benefit from the largesse of the PPPC, they are increasingly questioning whether the current trajectory of the government can sustain their long-term interests.

It would be a mistake to think that this rift would automatically translate into the bourgeoisie abandoning the PPP/C. That is not how power operates in Guyana. The political machinery that keeps the ruling party in place is too valuable for the elite to relinquish easily. But the discontent is real, and it will have consequences. If the Ali administration cannot carve out its own identity—distinct from the previous Jagdeo regime—the bourgeois class may start looking elsewhere for a political ally who can ensure that their economic interests are safeguarded. They may opt to back an independent candidate and this will mean a loss of support and campaign financing for the PPP/C.

The oligarchic elite will always find a way to align themselves with power. That is the nature of their existence. But power, as they are beginning to realize, does not remain static. The economic landscape in Guyana is changing; powerful external interests now have vested economic interests in Guyana and can even displace the local bourgeois class in terms of influence. The local bourgeoisie, though slow to react, is beginning to feel the tremors of this shift. They are worried, and rightly so.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)

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• Bharrat Jagdeo, dilemma, Irfaan Ali, patronage, PPP/C

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