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Guyanese and the First Presidential debate of 2024

Jul 01, 2024 Letters

Dear Editor,

Kaieteur News – Guyanese Americans watched the Presidential debate last Thursday evening. Guyanese Americans are divided between the Republican Trump and Democrat Biden, perhaps two to one in favour of the latter. There was no dispute among all of them and almost every non-Guyanese American that Trump won the debate. Guyanese and others said Biden under-performed and came across weak physically; it was a pathetic display of mental acuity and physical strength while Trump was himself – very dynamic in speech and appeared physically strong. Clearly, Biden did not show that he has the mental acuity and stamina to handle another four months of a grueling campaign that requires traveling to different locations daily. Biden is 81 years old while Trump is 78. Yet the very next day, he demonstrated alertness, cracked self-deprecating jokes, and showed a physical prowess that was missing Thursday night.

Right after the debate and continuing till now, a large number of Democrats, including almost every Guyanese, are urging Biden to drop out of the race because of the demonstrated physical weakness and ineffective mental acuity. Anyone who follows and knows Biden’s entry and immersion in politics, would tell you that he was among the best Senators and Vice President of the USA – very sharp, witty, brilliant in the Senate and as a Presidential candidate not only in 2020 but in his two earlier runs. The fear among the Democrats is that if Biden loses, the races in down positions for Congress, Governor, Assembly, and other positions could be impacted. The coat-tail effect could potentially hurt Democrats nationwide causing them to lose the Senate and denying a good opportunity to recapture the House of Representatives.

Analysts, including this writer, felt Biden lost the debate but that Trump didn’t win. Nevertheless, Biden did not quelch doubts about his physical wellness to be President for another four years whereas Trump did. It is not likely that Biden will drop out. That is also the view of several Guyanese. It is unchartered territory on how to replace a Presidential candidate (nominee) who wins the nomination democratically in some fifty-five contests opts to drop out of the Presidential race. Biden’s White House staff and his family seem to want him to labour on.

In terms of the debate performance on poll numbers, there does not seem much movement on the needle. One poll findings that was released the day after the debate said it did not affect how they will vote. However, Biden’s favourability ratings dropped one point while Trump’s went up one point. Both had unfavourability of some 59% going into the debate. Before the debate, 27% of likely voters rated Biden as good or excellent on mental fitness to be president. Following the debate, that level dropped to 20%.

In terms of the Guyanese factor on the outcome of the November 5 elections, their vote only matters in the swing states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Florida. There are a handful of other swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona but there are few Guyanese settled there. Most Guyanese live in New York where Biden leads by double digits and in Florida where Trump leads by a few percentage points. A few other states close have close races like Minnesota, Virginia, and North Carolina where there is a sizeable Guyanese presence. Biden leads comfortably in all three although he is still campaigning in all of them. Trump is targeting North Carolina and Virginia and the battleground states. The Guyanese vote is divided in every state with Trump’s share larger in the South than in the North. Four months are a long way off to determine the winner. But with last Thursday’s debate performance, Trump is likely to inch up in the polls though no Guyanese is convinced to swing from Biden to Trump.

Yours truly,

Vishnu Bisram

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