The President and his numbers

May 27, 2024 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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Kaieteur News – The President’s Independence Day address sounded almost the same as the opening statement he delivered in a press conference on 12th July 2023. Then he boasted that the country’s infant mortality rate had declined to 13 deaths per 1000 births in 2023.

It was Stabroek News in an editorial which first expressed bewilderment at this number considering that the year was not yet completed and the President was transposing partial numbers to give the infant mortality rate for the whole country. This is what the Stabroek News in an editorial had to say back then: “Similarly when it comes to the infant mortality rate, one cannot help but be confused by the President’s claim of a rate of 13 per every 1,000 births as opposed to 19 per 1,000 births in 2020. After all, he held his press conference in mid-July so any statistics for this year would cover just a few months. The UN World Population Prospects 2022 shows an “Infant mortality rate, for both sexes combined (infant deaths per 1,000 live births)” of 23.55 for 2022.”

If anyone presumed that it was an innocent mistake on the part of the President, then they need to think again. Because in the text of this year’s Independence address, as published by Newsroom, the President was quoted as saying, “Child mortality is now 13 per every 1000 births, when as compared to 19 in 2019. We have reduced from 19 child mortality for every 1000 birth to 13 for every 1000 births. This is testimony, this is qualitative analysis and qualitative examples of how the policies and expenditure of the government are working to make the lives of Guyanese better.”

So has Guyana’s child mortality rate been slashed by 30% since 2019? If this is so then, the country has been making significant progress in this area. The first thing to appreciate is the difference between infant mortality and child mortality. Infant mortality measures the number of deaths of infants under one year of age per 1,000 live births within a given period, usually a year.

On the other hand, child mortality refers to the death of children under the age of five. It encompasses both infant mortality (deaths within the first year of life) and deaths of children from ages one to five. The child mortality rate is usually expressed as the number of deaths of children under five years old per 1,000 live births in any given year. In his Independence address as reported by Newsroom, the President was quoted as referring to a steep decline in child mortality: from 19 per 1000 births in 2019 to 13 per 1000 births, (presumably in 2023).

UNICEF however gives Guyana’s child mortality rate as 29.2 in 2019 and not 19.  In 2022, this has declined to 26.6. The World Bank’s data is similar. It gives the child mortality rate as 29 in 2019 and 28 in 2021. ECLAC data is similar. So, any decline to 13 by 2023 would seem to be fantastic, except that one should avoid doing year by year comparisons and instead stick to an analysis over a longer period. There is a danger in comparing year- to- year data. Year-to-year variations can be due to random statistical fluctuations rather than meaningful trends. Small changes in numbers may not reflect significant shifts in underlying health conditions. In this instance however, the President himself is reporting a significant decline in child mortality. If Guyana has achieved a child mortality rate of 13 per 1,000 live births, it would signify a remarkable improvement, placing the country below the average for Latin America and the Caribbean, which was approximately 15 per 1,000 live births in recent years. This shift would reverse a historical trend where Guyana’s child mortality rates have traditionally been higher than the regional average, reflecting persistent health and socioeconomic challenges. Such a reduction would indicate substantial progress in healthcare access, maternal and child health interventions, and overall living conditions in Guyana. It would also highlight the effectiveness of targeted health policies and international support programs, positioning Guyana as a success story in regional health improvements and providing a model for other nations with similar challenges.

So could it be that the President is confusing child mortality with infant mortality. However, there is no evidence that the infant mortality rate in Guyana is 13 per 1000 births. The World Bank gives the 2019 figure as 25 deaths per 1000 births. PAHO gives a figure of 23. Perhaps in this next press conference, the President will clarify this conundrum. But then again, his last press conference was last year. (The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)                       

 

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