Oil reserve: is Jagdeo withholding, misrepresenting   

Apr 18, 2024 Features / Columnists, The GHK Lall Column

---

Hard Truths by GHK Lall

Kaieteur News – The clean, deep truth of new oil reserves from the last eight discoveries -what is it?  Discoveries not imagined but as coming straight out of the horse’s mouth itself – Exxon.

Though this has been written about before, it is vitally necessary that this issue of new oil reserves be kept before the public’s gaze.  Members of the public have some questions to ponder; the public has a vested interest since every Guyanese is a beneficiary of this patrimony.  First, who is withholding available reserves information, VP Jagdeo or Exxon?  Second, who is prevaricating (pretending at ignorance), Jagdeo or Exxon?  Third, who is misrepresenting the reserve situation to the Guyanese nation, Jagdeo or Exxon?  Fourth, why and for how long are these eight secrets (discoveries amounts) going to be kept from Guyanese?  And fifth, what do all the foregoing questions mean for Guyanese, should instill in them?

Who is withholding?  Exxon has a duty to the Government of Guyana, not Guyanese directly.  At one time I harbored the thought that the company had given this country the details of each new discovery, and that the government was keeping those from citizens, as is now customary with a lot of things here.  Then, Exxon itself came out to mention monetizing followed by appraisals, which can take years.  To repeat a point made in a prior writing, this clashes with prior discoveries announced, where Exxon relayed the exciting news about so many estimated hundreds of millions of barrels found each time and within one circle of the clock.  Dr. Vincent Adams, formerly of the US Department of Energy and Guyana Dept of the Environment (EPA) made the same point in last Sunday’s KN: Exxon bragging but Guyanese left guessing.

The issue is what is different now?  The geology should be the same.  The technology is still owned.  The Stabroek territory is also well known.  A discovery is one barrel or a hundred million, maybe even a billion, and any number in between or above.  On the extreme lower end of any such discovery, the announcement would not be of a discovery but a dry hole.  To elaborate, not commercially feasible.  For utter clarity: not enough barrels to make break even, or economic sense.  The fact is that eight delighted announcements of discoveries were made.  The record is there, and Guyanese are in the dark.  Well, not anymore; at least not relative to one.  For the Chinese partner in the Exxon-led consortium revealed 746,000 barrels from one discovery.  So much for VP Jagdeo’s prevaricating with “monetizing” and Exxon’s hopping about with “appraisals” taking years.  One didn’t, and it should not have been a secret.  Perhaps, it was considered too precious, or meaningless, for Guyanese to know.  To the Chinese, xie, xie.

So, if it is not the Chinese, and John Hess is waiting to capitalize on his US$53B windfall from Chevron, that leaves Guyana and Exxon.  Who is misrepresenting the new discovery estimates, Jagdeo or Routledge?  With impeccable coordination, both chiefs speak near simultaneously of “monetizing” and “appraisals”.  Since those rule out knowing the discovery estimates, all eight of them, how did CNOOC come by that information for one discovery?  I think the prime question is whether Bharrat Jagdeo and Alistair Routledge have just embraced tightly and danced a tango (excreted) on the heads of locals.  More frankly, is there the likelihood that they conspired, and are continuing to conspire, to hide those new discovery estimates (and other matters) from Guyanese?  If they don’t know, then nobody knows, which means that CNOOC can’t know.  I think I heard 746,000 barrels for one.

Moving to the fourth question about why and how long this unreal situation is going to continue, I think thus.  Flood the Guyanese mind with numbers from eight new oil discoveries months apart, and the roof could be raised.  Twenty billion barrels may be enough to separate enough natives from their KFC and Coca-Cola, and Jagdeo and Routledge conveniences.  Think of ‘conveniences’ as a euphemism for concoctions and distortions a la who knew and when did they know. Scrutinize this: One of the primary objectives of the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s requirement for 10-k filing is full and fair investor disclosure.  Decisions can be made accordingly.  “Exciting” is nice and “worldclass” nicer.  But at some time, I remind one and all, that the “reasonable certainty” of reserves using “proven technology” requirements of the SEC’s 2010 oil and gas modernization rules, would demand more specificity.  I believe, therefore, that Exxon is going to have to come clean with those new reserve numbers.  A scornful wave is given to the chatter from Woods and Routledge about Guyana being its “crown jewel” and the like.  Just give Guyanese the numbers.  Give shareholders the full details.  Think about this fellow Guyanese: it is always men like Wood, Routledge, and Hess, along with the CFO Mikells, who are beside themselves about Guyana’s wealth.  Why does Jagdeo always look so knotted, so constipated, so arthritic with this oil?  I think that the new discovery barrels will be quietly released and with some space between them.  The CNOOC 746,000 barrels stand as a fine example.  Below the radar.  Away from the mainstream.  But disclosed, nonetheless.  What is there to quarrel about?  Just hold horses.

Last, what is the significance of all this, and how should Guyanese start to think.  It relates to diffusing any pressure from building about contract renegotiation.  It is Jagdeo probably pretending about not knowing and waiting on Exxon; I think he already knows these oil reserve estimates.  It is of Exxon having Guyanese on a string and yanking them up and down; Routledge knows that, too. Now, I steer my fellows into thinking of these two issues.  The leader that they have in VP Jagdeo and Prezzie Ali.  The partner that this country has in Exxon. Closure: what manner of conspiracies have they been engaging in, new ones being constructed.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of this newspaper and its affiliates.)

---

• discoveries, GHK Lall, Guyanese, hard truths, Jagdeo

---