National budget: manage the mind, manage expectations

Jan 15, 2024 Features / Columnists, The GHK Lall Column

Hard Truths – By GHK Lall

Kaieteur News – On this auspicious Budget Day for 2024, I have a word of advice, more of a caution, for fellow citizens. Manage expectations. I am managing my mind, which enables being away from, or above, many things, including the promises about this year’s national budget.

I think it was President Ali who said that cost-of-living challenges would be addressed in today’s budget. There would be something, but I would not inhale too deeply, not hold breath too long. If the provisions and record of the last two budgets, both breaking new heights, are anything to go by, then ordinary Guyanese are in for some unsteady weather. I wait to learn if 2024 will continue the trend, other than a tidbit here and a morsel there, relative to the struggles and anxieties of Guyanese below the middle of the economic ladder. I sense some means testing, threshold limitations; yardsticks that make relief less than universal. Corporate profits are spiraling; Guyanese hopes are derailing. How can any leader stand beside a fellow citizen failing and reeling, and not be moved?

Guyanese are supposed to be rich, yet food is a challenge. They can’t think of many other things, for food and sustenance come first. Fix that, and then they are able to think of other basics, such as clothes and medicines, but with the rent coming first. The government goes into the 2024 budget well-armed.

The latest word from authoritative sources is that Guyana has reached a rare elevation: it is now the 10th richest country in the world. With a calculation like that, one with which I agree, even 1 in 10 Guyanese without food would be an abomination. The reality, however, is that it is somewhere just under or slightly over 5 out of 10 that do not have enough to the point that they can claim it was a healthy day, a vibrant one. Meaning, that there were sufficient vittles for the pot, the table (if they have one), and the family. No! Dr. Jagdeo, it is more than ‘pockets’ of poverty.

The way I see this budget, carve it up, is simplicity itself. What will be there for inanimate objectives, and what is earmarked for people breathing. Said differently, what bag of lavishness Dr. Ashni Singh has for infrastructure first, and what goodies for citizens next. Definitely money must be for urgent defence needs, for social services, for other sectors such as sugar and mining, but I focus exclusively on people versus building productions.

In the fewest words, the people have lost that battle for first consideration every time. Cement and steel have resoundingly whipped callaloo and squash. For every dollar given to the people, another ten or thereabouts were cleared for the products that have handsome returns for ruling politicos, their circles and cabals, and the contractor class. They know the thrilling experience of living a life matching the richest anywhere.

The issue before watching, waiting Guyanese is whether the pattern set by past budgets will continue on this Monday. I chose Monday for two reasons. First, it is national budget day; and second, it is the day that Stabroek News usually publishes its latest cost-of-living visit, and Guyanese expressions about their trials.

My hope is that on this fateful Monday, the moneyman would have some good news for Guyanese bent double and twisted cruelly by cost-of-living travails. There are hiccups. I observe Dr. Ashni Singh has a certain coldness about him that is chilling, when he is around numbers, dollars. Whenever it is numbers involved, Dr. Singh reminds of a mortician: we care. Don’t worry, leave everything to us. It is what is frightening, and the last two whoppers (make them double) for national budgets have haunted Guyanese, in the skeletons attracted.

If the President and government (the learned VP also weighed-in) are really serious about cost-of-living relief, then try these recommendations. First, have a structure; provide relief for the people through the tax system. Reduce VAT to 10%, with robust enforcement.

Cease with this incremental threshold increases; just make the darn thing across the board for earners up to a million (Guyana) a month; alright, half million. If it is too steep, introduce Child Tax Credits and dependent (elderly) exemptions. Increase Old Age Pensions between GY$7,000 and $10,000 per month; make it effective from January 01. Stop this business about cash in envelopes, which is tailormade for experimentation and exploration. Affix some level of COLA to the wages and salaries of workers.

If there isn’t an interest deduction on mortgages, then provide for it in the budget. Governments love to talk about how many house lots they distributed, when all they are doing is giving back the people their own land. Support them with what makes a house lot become a home. Say something about the minimum wage, and it is not 10% more; resist being held hostage by the private sector.
The money is available. Do more for the people in tangible terms. Do a little less for sand, tar, and bricks. The imbalance has been too egregious. The pain of the people way too pronounced. Me, I don’t expect much of anything. Over to the good doctor Ashni and his bag of medicines. Hopefully, nothing bitter, but things palatable.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)