The Jagdeo touch!

Dec 20, 2023 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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Kaieteur News – By now it should be clear to President Ali that he should stay clear of resurrecting the failed plans of former President Jagdeo, in the areas of food, energy and climate security. Ali would be best advised to abandon his declared intention for Guyana to lead the world in these areas.

The Jagdeo Initiative was the brainchild of Bharrat Jagdeo. It was intended to transform agriculture in the Caribbean. It hardly got off the ground, was never taken seriously and only attracted token attention from within the Caribbean.

The Jagdeo Initiative had identified binding constraints to regional agriculture. By the time he demitted office in 2011, and after almost 10 years of the Initiative, nothing much had changed regarding these constraints.

His grand plan to develop the Amalia Falls hydroelectric project and to slash energy costs by more than 35% also floundered. Jagdeo’s entire energy plan ended up becoming a victim of the perception of corruption that it was alleged. The Opposition refused to give its consent to the project and in the absence of this, the developers walked away.

An independent review of the project was commissioned under the APNU+AFC. Despite the consultants’ opinion that the project was the only realistic path to an emissions free electricity sector. There remained grave concerns over the project.

In its report, NORCONSULT found that the project cannot supply Guyana with total emissions free electricity; other renewable energy projects would have to be created but these would take time for preliminary and other studies.

There were also technical concerns expressed about the project. The consultants concluded that the live storage capacity of the reservoir at the site of the project was limited and therefore generation would depend on the flow of the river. However, during the dry season the inflow from the river would be insufficient for continuous full capacity generation, something that the APNU+AFC had been arguing since 2013 and something which was confirmed earlier this year when this newspaper published a photograph of the river being totally dry in sections.

The consultants recommended a Build Own Operate and Transfer (BOOT) model for the project. But the PPPC is not receiving any takers for this type of model and it was even rumored that the Chinese contractor is no longer keen on such a model and the project is likely to have to go out again to bids.

The uncertainty over the hydrology of the project has effectively killed it. The Amalia Fall Hydroelectric Project is dead in the water when it comes to a BOOT arrangement. No investor is going to put their money into this project and Guyanese must not allow for the proceeds of the Natural Resource Fund to be used to finance this dubious project.

Jagdeo’s Amalia Falls Hydroelectric Project will join the Skeldon Sugar Factory as another grand failure on his part. And it also signals the end of the Irfaan Ali’s for energy security.

It appears that the Jagdeo touch is blighting all the major platforms that Ali had adopted from Jagdeo. This past week, the Vice President in an interview with News Room was complaining about his disappointment with COP 28. But this has become par for course with him. He would recall that Copenhagen, on which he was hedging a great deal of hopes, also ended up being a disappointment in his ambitions to garner billions in climate funds for Guyana.

The fact of the matter is that questions are arising about the carbon credits schemes for countries with high forest cover and low deforestation. Jagdeo has conceded that COP 28, little progress was made in respect to carbon credits being part of the compliance markets. Little progress was also made in terms of a bilateral mechanism for the trade in carbon credits. Despite being present at COP 28, he could not turn the tide.

What Jagdeo does not realize is that the world is not excited about carbon credits generated from countries with large tracts of standing forests. Forests play and important role in sequestering carbon.  As such, persons like Jagdeo have been arguing that that countries should be rewarded for avoided deforestation.

The problem with Guyana is that its forests are intact, deforestation rates are low and therefore it is not avoiding any large amount of deforestation. As such, in order to reward countries with high forest cover and low rates of deforestation, there is a scheme to allow countries to earn carbon credits for maintaining high forest cover and low deforestation. But the math is now being questioned and this is why carbon credits are not likely to be a major part of compliance markets any time soon.

All of this will negate President Ali’s plans for Guyana to become a leader in climate security. Those plans have reached a dead end. And so too has his ambitions to champion food security and energy security.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of this newspaper and its affiliates.)

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• climate security, energy, food, former President Jagdeo, Guyana

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