H@RD TRUTHS BY GHK LALL –  Annexation by different action

Nov 30, 2023 Features / Columnists, News, The GHK Lall Column

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Kaieteur News – Sunday, December 3rd looms in the consciousness of Guyanese. The Statehood of Essequibo is arguably more on the minds of Guyanese than that of neighbors. What will it be? How will this unfold?  When will the next steps follow?  Where will all of this end?  These are more than questions that stir the veils of contemplation in Guyana. They are what probe into uncertainties of what all this means for Guyanese, what kind of existence they will have as the days and months advance. There are no authoritative answers, certainly not from this source. That has never stopped, so I try.

There is that indefatigable human element called a hopeful spirit. All will come to naught; conditions return to normal, however those are seen, interpreted, embraced.  There is difficulty with that, as the stage has been set like never before by Caracas.  To deescalate brings its own problems, exposures and dangers abound for those who fostered possibly unmanageable passions, expectations across the border.  Maintaining the heat may be settled for as the easiest way out of the self-created quagmire.  But how?

I think some comfort has been found in the belief that there are rational men in Venezuela. Hope and belief are twins, and often not the kind that delivers as expected.  Ambitions and calculations interfere.  Guyanese must factor those in evaluations of the situation; the whole of it. Now I do something strange.  I put myself in Senor Maduro’s shoes; in his head is closer. The odds are great, may never be better than today.

First, all comparisons favor Venezuela, and unquestionably so.  Manpower.  Money.  Military. Means.  All are there to Guyana’s huge disadvantage.  It is mouthwatering, the combination of enticements that drive rationality into the sea.  Second, the international community is sure to be adversarial, but the bell would have already been rung, the deed done.  Caesar crossed his Rubicon, and when he refused to look back, he was forced to look down.  Fall down on his face, actually.  All of this takes time to unravel, and chaos keeps company in the ensuing unsettled circumstances.  Students of Rome know this, and the lessons from there have application here.  For, third, the prongs of the dilemmas faced by Senor Maduro leave him in this hard place: damned if he does (move recklessly) and damned if he doesn’t (move aimlessly).  All things considered, it may have been concluded by him that it is better to seize the moment, and deliver what has eluded all other Venezuelan leaders for many lifetimes.  Miscalculations lead to misjudgments, as prompted by flashes of megalomania.  In other words, take a chance, and deal with the consequences later.  Incidentally, some developments, no matter how condemned by the world, take an eternity to reverse.  The genie that is out of the bottle is resistant to returning cooperatively to his cage.  Pandora’s box does not close once opened.  This is what Guyanese could be probably facing.

But there is another way to annex Guyana’s territory without resorting to swords.  A program that is quiet, continuing, comprehensive, and calculated achieves on the ground annexation without a shot fired.  Venezuela has the citizens to spare, and by the millions.  Economic migrants do not function, are not incentivized, by official sanction.  According to several reports, this is already a fact of life in border regions. There is an appealing beauty and arithmetic to 10,000 here and 10,000 there, and before long, there could be more than Guyana’s entire population roaming throughout Essequibo.  Official erosion of Guyana’s interests through unofficial invasion.  It could be a new form of undeclared war.  And there is the benefit of plausible deniability.  People go where opportunity is present.  Pushing them out, or having them recalled, is Guyana’s problem.  Whither the resources or the genuine will to what I call regularizing of matters.

Taking this to another level, annexation does not have to be limited to inundation into disputed territory.  Annexation can result through isolation of allies.  Annex their minds.  Annex their loyalties.  Annex their interests.  There is the damaged CARICOM fraternity.  Platitudes aside, there are leaks, thanks to Venezuelans incentives.  Inciting its population into a rabid state, and incentivizing its arc of neighbors (sans Guyana) into a dependent and grateful state, seems like a powerful combination to me.  It is working, with proof present.  As I assess these developments, Venezuela is sheathing its sword, while putting its ploughshares (and tractors and combines) to work to till the soil of Guyana to its satisfaction.

Similarly, Venezuela has tied down other assets, just in case.  There is China, there is Russia, and there is old Persia (a prior world power), now the new Iran.  Our neighbor is not without its portion of international allies and friends.  Who is backing whom, and who has Venezuela’s back, should not be in doubt, when the proper weights are attached to interests and this controversy.  Given such conditions, attempts at annexation could be seen differently by different people.  Guyana may remain a nation untroubled, but not as virginal as before.

I sum this up: there is a hard, blunt, and belligerent way to go about annexation.  Then there is an easier approach that lays the foundation, fulfills ambitions, and derails opposition.  Nicolas Maduro has chosen the softer.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of this newspaper and its affiliates.)

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• annexation, GHK Lall, Guyanese, human, Statehood of Essequibo

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