Venezuela will not invade Guyana

Nov 08, 2023 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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Kaieteur News – Conspiracy theories have always thrived in Guyana. People see things and attach the most implausible explanations to it. Over the past few days, for example, we have seen and heard all manner of alarm bells being raised over the threat by Venezuela.

Despite the penchant for conspiracy theories, it was very disappointing to note the degree of paranoia resulting from the decision of the legislature of Venezuela to approve a referendum which has as its subject the Essequibo. It was even more disappointing that this paranoia has led to misanalyses of the present situation.

The decision by Venezuela to go to referendum is not an electoral gambit by Nicholas Maduro. It is not an attempt by him to garner electoral support. The issue of the Essequibo arose as one of the immediate consensus areas during the Norway-brokered talks between talks in 2021 between the Venezuelan government and the opposition Unitary Platform. The first round talks were held in Mexico beginning on August 13, 2021.

The second round of talks were held between 3^rd September to 6^th September 2021. During this second round, the first agreement between Maduro’s government and the Opposition was for the joint defense of sovereignty over Guyana, Essequiba. This agreement escaped detection by Guyana’s diplomatic radar. Guyana at the time had no Ambassador in Caracas – it still does not- and as such was not paying sufficient attention to internal developments within Venezuela.

Notwithstanding the national consensus within Venezuela over the issue of Essequibo, that country is not likely to carry out an onshore invasion of Guyana. Venezuela knows that to do so would immediately result in the rolling back of the concessions, recently granted by the United States, for the sale of oil and gold to external markets. It also knows that following the conflict in Ukraine there will be no condoning, both in the West and among the nations of the South, of violations of Guyana’s sovereignty.

Second, Venezuela is in no position to launch a land invasion. As one military analyst has pointed out, to sustain an invasion Venezuela needs a supply line. Venezuela does not have the resources to sustain a supply line of munitions, fuel, food and manpower.  Third, the Venezuelan cannot afford at this time to deploy troops when it has a belligerent Opposition in the country. Maduro can risk ceding political ground if his troops get bogged down in a long drawn out conflict in Guyana. For a country that had seen more than six million persons migrate because of the economic crisis at home, Venezuela does not have sufficient boots to execute an invasion.

It also makes no practical sense to have a land invasion. It is the discovery of oil that is responsible for ramping up the tensions between Caracas and Georgetown. Venezuela is more likely to use naval measures to disrupt oil production and discourage investors in Guyana’s Exclusive Economic Zone. But doing so risks attracting the ire of the United States and China whose companies have sunken investments in the Guyana Basin.

The notion therefore that Venezuelan migrants pose a threat to Guyana’s national security is all poppycock. These poor folks are running from extreme hardships. They are not a military force-in-waiting in Guyana. There is therefore no need for all this nonsense about monitoring the migrant at the borders. The present suggestion about restricting Venezuelan immigration to Guyana and monitoring migrants is paranoia. It has the potential to descend to xenophobia. As a people who have suffered and who have migrated to all parts of the world to survive, Guyanese should have greater empathy for the Venezuelan migrants.

The government is therefore perfectly correct to meet with the Venezuelan migrants and offer them assurances that there will be no victimization, discrimination or xenophobia against them. Fourth, the Venezuelan referendum of December 3^rd is an internal matter. Under international law, it cannot be the basis for annexing the territory of another country. This has already been accepted as a principle in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. On the 12^th October last year, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution in which it pronounced that the illegal so-called referendums held from 23 to 27 September 2022 in parts of the Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine, and the subsequent attempted illegal annexation of these regions, have no validity under international law and do not form the basis for any alteration of the status of these regions of Ukraine.

Guyana therefore can be assured that the referendum which will be held on December 3^rd is an internal matter to Venezuela and will never be accepted by the international community as forming the basis for the annexation of the Essequibo. Venezuela also knows this. Guyanese should therefore refrain from becoming frenzied about this issue. The territorial controversy will not abate anytime in our lifetime. Nothing that the International Court of Justice does will force Venezuela to abandon its claim to Guyana’s territory. If Guyanese are looking to blame anyone, blame Burnham and his advisors, who reopened the controversy in 1966, a matter that Guyana had considered closed.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of this newspaper and its affiliates.)

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• Essequibo, explanations, paranoia, Peeping Tom, Venezuela

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