H@rd Truths by GHK Lall – A new dawn for Africa has emerged

Sep 03, 2023 Features / Columnists, News, The GHK Lall Column

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Kaieteur News – The stakes grow higher in Niger, with ousted President Mohamed Bazoum now having high treason charges mentioned in the latest highwire development.  International condemnations and pressures mount.  Ecowas threatened force, then paused; Burkina Faso and Mali strongly objected, and readied to intervene for Niger.  Meanwhile, the Russians frowned over intervention, and hover ominously.  In wrapping my head around this sticky situation, the hope is that things don’t deteriorate, get bloody.  What looks more likely, however, is that the Niger coup has some staying power.  This raises questions, and concerns.

First, is the coup in Niger the opening salvo indicating a return to coups, the dawn of a new era of such resolutions?  For sure, the toppled leader of Niger, Mr. Bazoum, was democratically elected, which counts the highest somewhat universally.  Unfortunately, the will of the people has frequently led to yoking of those same people.  Minorities and outsiders experience the brunt of democracy’s despotisms.  It is the claim amidst swirling contentiousness in Niger.  I fear those clamors may be reheard-corruption, troubled leadership, poor results, struggling population.  Some fabricated, others exaggerated; often real. What then?  Well, there is Gabon now.

Appreciation abounds for history, philosophical concepts, and the stick of global policemen.  Ideals only mean so much, hold for so long; especially when they pale into shadows of what they should be.  Ethical leadership.  Clean governance.  Fair governance.  Equity.  Freedoms.  Constitutional fidelity (letter, spirit).  Cumulatively, fragments of the tapestry encapsulating benevolent government and leadership under a democratic system.  Regrettably, too often those ideals are bandied about as the banners operated under, only for the malevolent to flourish in reckless, devastating expressions.  When democracy’s ideals go down, the people go down with them.  Then probabilities multiply that its discipline that kept wrath and resentments contained ruptures.  I point to Niger and what is heard coming from that torn land.  Rightly or wrongly, when there is an ingrained sense, the pervasive belief, that there is chronic unfairness and injustice, then the territory becomes more enticing for, more receptive to, coups.

Second, what does this coup in Niger instill in other places within Africa, other turbulent parts of the world?  Or third, what does the Niger coup spark in the heads of other countries where there is great disillusionment with how some democratically elected governments function, the seething uproars that fester?  Or fourth, what is energized where there are great stirrings of disenchantment with how democratically elected leaders operate and fail to fulfill the great responsibilities vested in them?

Focusing on Africa alone, the record is discouraging.  In the last 60 years, there have been approximately 60 attempted coups, a staggering figure by itself.  Some countries have had the alarming: more than one coup.  Another reality that disturbs is that about half of them have been successful.  Most of them have been led by generals, but there has been a lieutenant, and a couple of sergeants.  Chronic disgruntlements and acute disputes can be flashpoints leading to caution thrown to the winds, dams collapsing.  When people believe (accurately or otherwise) that they are the victims of oppression, then democracy’s ideals don’t hold as well.  The thinking is that anything is better than standing still in the present; that the agonizing and degrading have been endured for too long; that nothing could be worse.  Thus, some are inspired to act.

Fifth, does this mean that a truly hardheaded and hard-edged soldier or citizen would be willing to risk pariah status for himself and cabal, and sanctions on the people? I think that the general(s) in Niger made calculations, and were comforted by their conclusions.  This is suspending individual ambition temporarily.  Thinking further, this coup did not spring from randomness, or isolation, but a careful mapping of the pros and cons, and the odds of first prevailing, and then perpetuating itself, in the face of teeth sure to protrude via high foreign alarm and sharp anger.  Two weeks and counting, the junta is still around, and appears more entrenched with segments on its side, and foreign allies rallying around.  This is as indicative, as it is ominous, and I tread gingerly, could give others elsewhere ideas.  All are subservient to hallowed constitutions and noble democracy’s demands.  Until they are not.

Sixth, what weapons can a ‘gravely concerned’ world, think superpowers in the West, apply to register position?  There have been fusillades through the damnation of pariah state status, targeted sanctions, economic sanctions; a feared arsenal, indeed; and the ultimate: threats of invasion, or the real article.  Seventh, what have been the results, after all these saber-rattling deterrents, or actual bombardments?  A mixed bag, I would say.  I nod to the record of Iran, then Venezuela.  In brief: leaders with the stomach to tough it out outlast the armaments, notwithstanding the grim toll on their people, friends, adversaries.  When there is the steel to slog forward and slug it out, they endure.  There are those ayatollahs, the late Chavez, and the resurgent Maduro.  Incentives for the ambitious and the daring.  As usual, the people remain pawns subject to the disposal of events.

Though coups bring personal grimacing, trepidation, and resistance, the restless and furious may not be so squeamish.  Whether military or civilian, bloodless or ill-fated, I think more is in store.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of this newspaper and its affiliates.)

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• GHK Lall, H@rd Truths, Mohamed Bazoum, President, Russians

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