Guyana economic numbers means nothing to the poor

May 03, 2023 Editorial

Kaieteur News – In 2022, the World Bank had projected the Guyanese economy to grow by 34.3 percent in 2023. In January this year, the World Bank refined its projection for Guyana in 2023 to 25.2 percent.

Meanwhile, there is a forecast that came out in April, which also emphasizes how stark the economic outlook is for regional economies in 2023. From the Economic Commission for Latin American and Caribbean countries (ECLAC), the forecast for economic growth for the Caribbean region (ex-Guyana) is a dismal 3.5%. Though their numbers are slightly different, what stands out is the huge difference between the forecasts of both the World Bank and ECLAC for Guyana and those of every other country in the Latin American and Caribbean regions.

According to the World Bank’s 2023 forecast, Guyana’s growth is now pegged at 25.2 percent, and the next nearest countries are St. Vincent and the Grenadines (6.0%) and Paraguay at 5.2%, almost 4 and 5 times lower respectively. It is nearly the same trend present in the ECLAC 2023 report with a projected economic growth of 37.2 percent for Guyana, while Panama (4.6%) and Paraguay (4.2%) are almost 9 times behind Guyana. It surprises that, though absent from the World Bank projections, the ECLAC report notes Venezuela’s growth to be a comparatively better 5 percent, and Antigua and Barbuda at a robust 9.5%.

We present these estimates about Guyana, and how our country measures up to the rest of the region, and there is only one conclusion: there is no comparison. No comparison at all can be made because Guyana’s economic forecasts, every single one of them, leave all other countries in the dust. It is reasonable, therefore, to anticipate that the reality of the Guyanese people to be healthy and vigorous, as well as a joyful one. The sad story of Guyanese is that the reality of their existence reflects no such strength, none of the surging spirits, which should be the fine lot of a people living with these dazzling economic numbers,

For all that Guyana’s economic numbers are worth, and with compassion for the plight of the people of Haiti, many of the citizens of this country are living almost like Haitians who are compelled to manage somehow with their negative forecasts for 2023 of -1.1 percent (World Bank), and -0.7 percent (ECLAC). This question can be asked: of what good are those glowing numbers, when almost half of the population of Guyana (48%) is forced to survive on US$5.50 a day? When Guyanese are not starving, they are constantly struggling and hurting. Amidst all this, one of the foreign oil companies operating in Guyana’s offshore oilfields, Hess Corporation, just announced another discovery of oil.

As both the World Bank and ECLAC pointed out, inflation is still a problem for the region. Guyanese can speak with the authority of hard experience about the ravages of inflation on their existence, their grim standard of living, their paltry family life. Higher interest rates in the highly developed world could mean a slowdown in business activity, which usually translates to less demand and lower prices for commodities. Oil is crucial to Guyana, and to a lesser extent nowadays so is gold, and when their prices go down, then the writing on the wall for already hard-pressed Guyanese gets even gloomier. The hope here is that the opposite occurs, so that Guyanese (and the region) could get some relief, no matter how small.

Guyana’s economic growth, as measured by the best around, is glorious. Yet, Guyanese are still living with their tight circumstances, in some instances their hand-to-mouth existence. Clearly, the quality of governance and leadership that could make a difference is conspicuously lacking. Part of the solution rests in the hands of both: renegotiate the 2016 oil contract. Do more for Guyana, so that Guyanese can do better, actually know what it is to taste the real substances of those neon-like economic numbers.

When budget money is gobbled up by infrastructure, and citizens are limited to the measly, it means that there is not enough to go around. Renegotiate the contract, or holdup approval of new projects. Because those grand economic growth numbers mean nothing for poor, ordinary Guyanese.

Economic Commission for Latin American and Caribbean countries (ECLAC), economy, Editorial, Guyana, World Bank

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Guyana economic numbers means nothing to the poor

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