The PNCR will swallow its own vomit

Oct 21, 2022 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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Kaieteur News – The Opposition has boxed itself, as expected, into a difficult corner. By holding on to the discredited narrative about phantom and migrant voting and a bloated list, it has been pushed into a position in which it cannot compete in the forthcoming local government elections.

Having raised a maelstrom of concerns over the Voters’ List, the Opposition would be unable to hold a straight face were it to enter local government elections with a List more or less extracted on the same basis as the one extracted for the elections of 2^nd March 2020.

The Opposition had adopted all manner of manoeuvres to try to put local government elections on hold. It has succeeded in pushing the date back to almost the end of the first quarter of 2023.

But the government is not in a mood to entertain the silliness of the Opposition. It is ready for these elections and from all accounts has already begun to solicit and receive campaigning financing.

Judging from the ‘outreaches’ of the government, it is also clear that the government is in full campaign mode. The government is increasing its popularity in PNCR constituencies – even though this may not always translate into votes.

While the government is busy campaigning, the Opposition is making excuses and attempting delaying tactics. And this does not only relate to the corner into which it has boxed itself.

The Opposition, APNU+AFC, is also simply not going to be able to mobilize the financial resources and the candidates for the forthcoming local government polls. The financers of the APNU+AFC are going to be wary about injecting funds into a Coalition that is not likely to be together after December and is not likely ever again to be able to win a general and regional elections.

The PNCR, the main partner in the APNU+AFC, is now a divided house. The party is splitting at the seams and driven by factionalism. It lacks a unifying leader or force. Opposition to the PPPC is simply not going to bring the factions together, not for local government polls.

The AFC which did poorly in the 2018 local government elections is weakened. It is not likely to  muster the resources to compete by itself in the 2023 local government polls and is has already signaled the possibility of exiting the Coalition at the end of this year.

Both the PNCR and the AFC are in transition. They are not likely to be ready for local government elections and many potential candidates will shy away from both entities given what took place with the 2020 general and regional elections.

As such, the APNU and the AFC are expected to suffer a mauling at the forthcoming local government elections. They know this and this may be one reason why they may be reluctant to contest the polls and have a repeat of what happened in 2018 when the PPPC swept 60% of the total votes cast.

The turnout at local government elections, however, tends to be very low. And this is one of the reasons why the List should not be a problem. The voter turnout is usually less than 40%.

The voter turnout in not likely to get better in next year’s local government polls given the attempted rigging of the general and regional elections of 2020. The turnout may be even lower than in 2018 given that this is not a high-stakes election and the results are more or less predictable.

Local government polls attract less controversy. The results are usually known and published by midnight.   The dilemma which faces the APNU and the AFC is that should they not compete, then the PPPC will sweep and dominate all the neighbourhood democratic councils and the municipalities. The APNU and the AFC may be weary of the PPP seizing control of the Linden, Mahdia, Bartica, Georgetown and New Amsterdam municipalities – all of which are traditional strongholds of the PNCR.

The PPPC on the other hand, regardless of whether the APNU and the AFC, participates in virtually assured to winning Corriverton, Rose Hall Town, Anna Regina, Mabaruma and Lethem. The PPPC is also likely to make inroads into constituencies long considered safe bets for the Opposition. The PPPC created an upset in the 2018 local government elections when it picked up 25% of the total votes cast in Georgetown, showing the dangers which can present itself to the APNU and the AFC by a low turnout. It won the most votes in Constituency 2 – North, South and Central Kitty, and Subryanville;  Constituency 3 –   Bel Air Gardens, Bel Air Springs, Prashad Nagar and North-East and North-West Campbellville; and Constituency 6 – North, Central and South Cummings Lodge, and Pattensen/ Turkeyen South.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the writer and not this newspaper)              

 

 

 

 

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