Lula will win. The Labour Party will win

Oct 08, 2022 Features / Columnists, Freddie Kissoon

Kaieteur News – For each setback you get in the world, there is a positive emergence. Italy has voted for a fascist formation. But even though that is a worrying prospect, one should not be depressed.

The cabal that just won the Italian general election is a coalition. Italian coalitions do not stay solidified for more than two years. If there is anything Italy contributed to the political theory textbook is that coalitions are about people whose mentalities do not allow them to stay in power for too long. Before you take the pizza out of the oven or before an Andre Bocelli concert is over, the current marriage will fall apart.

The two phenomena on the horizon waiting to happen are the Lula triumph in Brazil and the Labour Party victory in the next election in the UK. If the election is held tomorrow, Labour will secure a two-thirds majority. If Labour fails to win in the coming poll in 2024, then it is a gift that they have deliberately refused to accept.

But the bright spot in the world waiting to encircle the globe is the coming victory of Lula in Brazil. The defeat of Bolsonaro is a foregone conclusion and it mirrors the situation with Trump in the US 2016 and the AFC in Guyana in 2015.

In the US, citizens wanted a break from the Democratic Party that they thought had leaders that were replicas of each other. Barack Obama spoke unadulterated nonsense when Mrs. Hilary Clinton lost to Trump.

He said that if he had run again he would have won. Obama ran for a second term and barely won and caused the Democrats to lose seats in both the House and Senate by the largest margin under a sitting president from the Democratic Party.

Trump won because of Obama. Young White voters and White women did not vote for Obama in his second contest because they felt that he brought no changes to American politics. If Kamala Harris wins the candidacy for 2024, (though I doubt she will get it), she will lose the presidential contest

Harris is going to be beaten by Trump (if he gets the nod from the Republican Party) or by another Republican candidate because Whites and substantial sections of the non-White population are not going to vote for her.

What will happen is that as soon as she wins the primaries, the Obama symbolism will kick it. People will say: “not again.” What the failure of eight years of Obama has done to the United States is to kill the chances of any Black (not non-White) president in the future. He remains what he was – a celebrity president.

Back home in Guyana, it was the same thing. People wanted a change from the long rule of the PPP and the AFC appeared as the bright spot on the horizon. People were not only emotional about the AFC but felt it would refashion a different Guyana.

They thought so with Trump and he didn’t offer it. In fact Trump fooled every citizen in the US who was from the middle classes and the working masses. The AFC turned out to be the most horrible politicians ever to have emerged from the shores of the Caribbean.

There is no question in the mind of this analyst that the AFC will not get countrywide, even 200 votes in 2025. I know a family member of a leading big wig in the AFC that told me he will vote for the PPP in 2025.

So Trump and the AFC were kicked out after they lacerated the hopes and dreams of the people who thought they would have transformed their respective countries. If Trump wins the Republican primaries and the Democrats put an impressive candidate against him, Trump will lose.

In Brazil, like the US and Guyana, people thought Bolsonaro would have ushered in a new era. Bolsonaro turned out to be the worst president Brazil ever had with many scholars and political observers feeling that he has mental problems.

Lula will beat him in the runoff this month, and when that happens, I, personally will celebrate. I may for the first time in my entire life, take a taste of alcohol. I am a huge fan of Lula. The world will have a positive injection of political sanity when Lula wins. Brazil will return to its democratic norms when Bolsanaro goes. There should be a judicial investigation into Bolsonaro’s tenure. Back home – who vex, vex. I don’t care how people react to the words to follow – unless Irfaan goes off on a wild tantrum, I will vote for him in 2025.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)

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