Without reduction in greenhouse gas, countries in tropical region will face ‘extreme’ heat danger

Without reduction in greenhouse gas, countries in tropical region will face ‘extreme’ heat danger – new study

Sep 02, 2022 News

Kaieteur News – A recent science report concluded that without a major reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, countries like Guyana, located in the tropical region will be exposed to dangerously high ‘Heat Index.’

The tropical countries

Heat Index is a metric that quantifies heat exposure in human beings. It is also known as the ‘apparent temperature’ and it is what the temperature feels like to the human body when relative humidity is combined with the air temperature. As such, it has important considerations for the human body’s comfort; as when the body gets too hot, it begins to perspire or sweat to cool itself off.

The science report was published by Communications Earth & Environment, an open access journal from Nature Portfolio that publishes high-quality research, reviews and commentary in all areas of the Earth, environmental and planetary sciences. The report was written by Lucas R. Vargas Zeppetello, Adrian E. Raftery and David S. Battisti.

They stated that using probabilistic emission projections, they were able to show that changes in the Heat Index driven by anthropogenic CO2 emissions will increase global exposure to dangerous environments in the coming decades. Anthropogenic CO2 comes from the burning of fossil fuels and are linked to human everyday activities like power generation, transportation, industrial sources, chemical production, petroleum production, and agricultural practices.

According to the report, the global warming scenarios present troubling projections of increasing heat stress driven by anthropogenic emissions.

It was highlighted that in the tropics and subtropics, where the dangerous Heat Index threshold was typically exceeded on less than 15% of the days in each year between 1979 and 1998, they project that, by 2050, many people living in the tropical regions will likely experience dangerous Heat Index values on between one-quarter and one-half of all the days in each year.

For the median projection, it was stated that by 2100, most regions in the tropics and subtropics will exceed the dangerous Heat Index threshold on most of the days in each year. Many regions in the midlatitudes will experience dangerous Heat Index values between 15 and 90 days each year.

Importantly, it was stated that even if the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 2 °C is met, the exposure to dangerous Heat Index levels will likely increase by 50–100% across much of the tropics and increase by a factor of 3–10 in many regions throughout the midlatitudes.

As such, it was stated that without emissions reductions more aggressive than those considered possible by our statistical projection, it is likely that by 2100, many people living in tropical regions will be exposed to dangerously high Heat Index values during most days of each typical year, and that the kinds of deadly heat waves that have been rarities in the midlatitudes will become annual occurrences.

CONCLUSIONS

In concluding it was stated that they have forecast that in coming decades the Heat Index will exceed “dangerous” and “extremely dangerous” levels.

“The temperature projections on which they are based take into account probabilistic projections of country-scale global CO2 emissions and the probability density function of global transient climate sensitivity. They show that global mean temperature change will likely approach 2 °C by 2050, with a median projection 1.8 °C, assuming that recent system dynamics do not change dramatically,” it was stated.

To this end, it was stated that it is likely that, without major emissions reductions, large portions of the global tropics and subtropics would experience Heat Index levels higher than considered “dangerous” for a majority of the year by the end of the century.

It was stated too that without adaptation measures, heat related illnesses will increase and outdoor working capacity will decrease in many regions especially where farming is a common practice.

In the next 78 years, according to the United Nations (UN) the population in the tropical regions is projected to be about 5.3 billion people. This is expected to be half of the world’s populations by the year 2100.

Moreover, it is projected too that dangerous heat levels would become a regular occurrence in midlatitudes countries where extreme temperatures are not frequent. Projected heat levels were compared to that of a case study of the Chicago heat wave of 1995 indicates how heat waves of similar intensity to those that have killed hundreds in major cities.

With this being said, it should be noted that very high temperatures particularly for the elderly, poor and outdoor workers can cause them to suffer grave health consequences, and they may require a basic reorientation to the risks of extreme heat even though they live in midlatitudes countries.

For full report, click: file:///C:/Users/r.sambach/Downloads/s43247-022-00524-4.pdf

GUYANA

As many countries move to renewable energy, Guyana has been rushing to produce more of its newfound oil and gas resources.

With over 11 billion barrels of proven oil resources on the prolific Stabroek Block, despite being signed onto a heavily critised lopsided deal with American oil giant, ExxonMobil, Guyana’s leaders are determined to continue producing oil before the world decarbonizes.

Guyana’s leaders on many occasions have reiterated their position to carry out oil production in a net zero carbon world.

Addressing the official launch of the International Energy Conference and Expo, earlier this year, Vice President, Bharrat Jagdeo said, “Let me be very clear about our position. We support net zero by 2050. In fact, at this point in time, because our forest is such a huge carbon sink, we are already at net zero. In fact, we are positive.”

Net Zero by 2050, is a report launched by the International Energy Agency, that outlines a scenario which the world could achieve the global climate target, in a manner that prevents the world from overheating. Information from the UN shows that over 130 countries have now set or are considering a target of reducing emissions to net zero by 2050.

To this, Jagdeo had explained that Guyana’s net carbon sink effect is so significant, that it equates to the combined emissions of Norway, Sweden and Denmark.

“And even with us producing one million barrels of oil per day with all the emissions using current technology, we will still be net zero because of the nature of our forest and the carbon sink, which our President spoke about; 19 gigaton storage on an annual emission,” he had said.

The Vice President was reported in the media saying, “… because we believe climate change is real and the faster you get to a decarbonised world, the better for the entire planet, then we can avoid catastrophic changes to the climate. We support carbon price and a strong global carbon price. We have advocated for this for many years and we support it.”

However, in closing Vice President had highlighted that while the nation hopes to achieve such a scenario by 2050, it will still need fossil fuel.