Nothing much is likely to change

Aug 31, 2022 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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Kaieteur News – The PNC/R is going to take a hammering in the forthcoming Local Government Elections, slated for later this year. The PNC/R has lost face and support because of its shenanigans during the 2020 General and Regional elections and because of its continued support of false narratives related to those elections.

The PNC/R has been projected in the public imagination as an election cheat. As a result, it will lose significant support but not enough to create a tectonic shift in the results of Local Government Elections.

This year’s Local Government Polls will not change much in terms of the balance of power at both the municipal and Neighbourhood Democratic Council (NDC) levels. The results of this year’s poll, with a few deviations, are likely to mirror that of the 2018 polls.

In those polls the PPP swept almost 60 percent of the votes cast as compared to only 34 percent for the APNU. Reports indicated that the PPP/C won almost 65 percent of the total PR seats. But these numbers can be misleading because of the low turnout nationally and especially in PNC/R strongholds where it was expected that the APNU would easily canter home regardless of the turnout.

Nothing much is likely to change.  In the municipal elections, the PNC/R is likely to cruise to victory in Georgetown, New Amsterdam and Linden. The PPP/C can close it eyes and walk away with Ann Regina and Corriverton. It should also secure wins in Mabaruma, Rose Hall and Lethem but its victory is likely to be narrow. There will be a toss-up in Mahdia, won the last time by the APNU, and Rose Hall won the last time by the PPP/C.

The PPP/C is also expected to secure control of most of the NDCs, as it did in 2018. As such there is not likely to be any major shift in the balance of power in the forthcoming Local Government Polls.

As is evident, the PPP/C is already in full campaign mode. It has already begun to solicit funds for its elections campaign. It is not certain whether this time around many of the businessmen will have their two sets of envelopes: one for the PPP/C and the other for the PNC/R.

Judging from events over the past week, the PPP/C’s organisation and support in Lethem is solid. And as the campaign heats up it is likely to target the marginal municipalities of Bartica, Mahdia and Mabaruma.

The PPP/C is not going to ever win Georgetown, regardless of whether there is a fallout from the attempt of the PNC/R to benefit from rigged elections in 2020. The key question is whether the turnout in Georgetown – a PNC/R stronghold – will be lower than in 2018.

Local Government Elections tend to have low voter turnout.  In 2018, 30,000 less voters voted than in 2016. And the turnout in Georgetown was reported as 26.3 percent and nationally as just over 36 percent.

Against this background of low voter turnout, the question of a new list should not arise. The Court has already made a ruling as to whose names are eligible to be on the list. So it does not make much sense to have a fresh house-house registration exercise especially considering when one was conducted just before the 2020 elections.

Unlike General and Regional Elections which had 70 percent turnout rates, the turnout at Local Government Elections is around half of this rate. In 2018, Linden and Georgetown had extremely low turnout rates but the APNU did not claim then a bloated list even though it comprehensively won both of these municipalities. The turnout was extremely low in these two municipalities because no party posed any sort of threat to the APNU.

The key question for the APNU is whether it will go back with the incumbent Mayor of Georgetown as one of its candidates for the Local Government Polls, and if he does secure a seat whether he will be elected as Mayor in a PNC/R dominated council. For the PPP/C it should not expect to win more than three seats in Georgetown.

Whether the AFC will contest the Local Government Polls is debatable. The party is not in shape for an election at this time and may very well opt out, leaving it to the APNU or PNC/R and the PPP/C to contest. It is doubtful whether the AFC will wish at this stage to join forces with the APNU to contest the Local Government Polls.

Whatever the decision that is made, there will be no dramatic shifts in terms of control of Local Government. The results of the elections – expected in November – are likely to not be dissimilar to the results of the 2018 polls when the PPP/C handed the APNU and the AFC a sound licking.

One other thing is sure and two other things are certain. There is not likely to be any allegations of electoral rigging in Local Government Elections. The results and the reaction to these results can be predicted with ease.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)

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