Optimism justified – Guyana’s leadership in good hands

Jul 29, 2022 Letters

Dear Editor,

Good News! Prudent Governance! This is how I feel as I read that, “Guyana’s economy continues to shine as IMF projects gloomy outlook for the world.” This is not propaganda. According to the Washington Post, January 2022, right after a strong rebound in 2021, the global economy is now in a pronounced slowdown amid fresh threats from COVID-19 variants and a rise in inflation, debt, and income inequality, all of which could endanger the recovery in emerging and developing economies. In fact, the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report that “Global growth is expected to decelerate markedly from 5.5 percent in 2021 to 4.1 percent in 2022 and 3.2 percent in 2023, as pent-up demand dissipates and as fiscal and monetary support is unwound across the world.” Bleak indeed!

However, Guyana is expected to ‘stand out above the rest’ in a very timely manner too, as the country has its booming oil and gas sector. Gleaning from the local dailies, I see that just last month, the World Bank in its Global Economic Prospects report outlined that “Guyana is leading the pack with the highest forecast for Gross Domestic Project (GDP) growth for Latin America and the Caribbean Region with 47.9 percent.” Those figures are buttressed by 34.3 percent GDP growth in 2023, yet again representing the highest growth forecast for the Region. This kind of forecast is candid, and has no ‘politics’ to it. It is consistent with the country’s outlook according to Minister of Finance, Dr. Ashni Singh, who reported a revised 2022 growth projection for the country: 57.8 percent in 2022 up from the 47.5 percent projection made earlier this year. Let me add that the non-oil economy is projected to grow by 7.7 per cent.

I draw attention to my outburst of ‘Prudent Governance,’ as I recall that Guyana’s Mid-Year Report for 2021 did indicate that Guyana recorded real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 14.5 percent while non-oil GDP grew by 4.8 percent, “… despite the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic and even the devastating floods experienced in May-June.” Havoc was wreaked on the land, and still famine and collapse did not devastate the country. I think that it is still fresh on people’s mind that during this onslaught, the unprecedented floods which impacted particularly the agriculture, forestry and mining sectors, along with the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, (the effects of which spilled over into the last half of that year and even beyond), the revised full-year forecast for real GDP growth in 2021 was 19.5 percent overall and 3.7 percent for the non-oil economy. Indeed, a testimony to resilient and wise leadership.

For some final thoughts, I highlight that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) explained that global output contracted in the second quarter of this year, owing to downturns in China and Russia, while consumer spending in the United States undershot expectations. Then aside from the COVID-19 pandemic aftermath, several other shocks hit the world’s economy, namely higher than expected inflation worldwide (especially in the United States and major European economies) that triggered tighter financial conditions; a worse-than-anticipated slowdown in China, reflecting COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns; and further negative spillovers from the current war in Ukraine. The dismal conclusion is that “The IMF baseline projection is for the world’s economic growth to slow to 3.2 per cent this year – 0.4 per cent lower than what was projected in April.”

So, kudos, justifiably so, for the leaders. Outside of oil and gas, things are still on the upward move. The signs are so noticeable-job creation, housing boom, and quite a lot of infrastructural initiatives. This is just the beginning.

Yours truly,
Singh

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Optimism justified – Guyana’s leadership in good hands

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