The Ali Initiative is underdeveloped

May 21, 2022 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

---

Kaieteur News  – The President gave another substandard performance during his address to the Regional Agri-Investment Forum. In so doing, he reveled in the use of statistics, but failed to link these properly to any argument he was making.
Merely packing an address with statistics is no guarantee of an impressive presentation. The failure to explain what the statistics mean defeats their usage. Even worse was that the President failed to cite the sources of much of the statistics he used, thereby raising issues about their reliability and credibility.
The President said that the global consumption of grains is expected to increase to three million tonnes by 2030 and developing countries will account for 90% of this amount, and that 75% relate to expanding feed consumption. It is assumed that he was saying that this projected increase creates greater demand. But then he said that already the poultry and livestock sectors are experiencing pressures in the form of input feed costs.
So what exactly was the point he was making? Was he saying that there will be a shortage of feed by 2030? Or is he saying this and also saying that presently there is an increase in prices because of supply constraints?
He went to announce that wheat prices are forecast to increase by 40% this year and consumption by 12%. However, in this regard, he did explain that this is likely to present challenges for developing countries and Caricom in meeting terms of price rises and supply.
He then segued to global meat production, pointing out that global mutton production is expected to grow by 15% while consumption is expected to increase to 18 million tonnes. The President used two different units for comparative purposes. He was telling his audience, on the one hand that mutton production would increase by 15% but instead of using a percentage indicator for consumption he used weight. So what percentage increase can we expect for the consumption of mutton? Presumably this is higher than the 15%.
He then was reported to have said that dairy production is expected to increase at a rate of 1.7% per annum by 2030 but that consumption will increase at an annual rate of 1.2%. So what was the point being made? Is this good news or bad news? Since consumption growth is less than the production growth, this should mean that dairy prices should fall, and thus be a disincentive rather than an incentive for agricultural investment.
The President then set a series of targets to reduce Guyana’s food import bill by 25% by 2025. He spoke about increasing grain production – corn and soya. Presumably this will reduce imports of corn and soya which are used extensively in feed production.
But it does not follow that it will. If, for example, Guyana decides to ramp up its poultry production, it may need to import more grain rather than less, notwithstanding the country becoming engaged in large-scale corn and soya production.
As part of plans to reduce the country’s food import bill, the President spoke about a project involving shrimp farming. But will this initiative result in an increase in the country’s shrimp production especially considering that the fishing industry is experiencing a steep decline in catch? But far more importantly is by how much will this shrimp farming decrease our shrimp imports? And how much shrimp do we import presently?
The President spent a considerable amount of time in his address speaking about local food production initiatives. And while there is nothing wrong with this, this was a regional conference which is looking at regional agricultural production. What Guyana does is important but equally important was for the President to help to outline what is being done region-wide. After all he is the lead on this food investment initiative.
The President’s presentation, once again, lacked coherence. But it also demonstrated that there is much more regional coordination to be achieved in order to increase regional food production and reduce extra-regional food imports. The concept is not yet fully crystallized, and thus a conference aimed at attracting investment in agriculture may have been premature.
Investment will not come unless investors are clear about the Region’s food plans and the role of each country in that scheme. Much more work therefore needs to be done and the President needs help. He is being advised to source experts from the FAO and IICA, as Jagdeo had done with the Jagdeo Initiative
Most of the issues raised at Thursday’s opening were issues which should have long been settled by the regional integration movement. It shows the palpable failure of the Jagdeo Initiative.
President Ali should set aside emotions and obligations to his former boss. The Jagdeo Initiative is now a relic. Nothing Ali does will resurrect that initiative. He should not bother even trying.
(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)

---

---