COVID-19: Will we ever reach herd immunity?

May 01, 2022 Dr Zulfikar Bux, Features / Columnists

By Dr. Zulfikar Bux
Emergency Medicine Specialist

Kaieteur News – Ever since we started vaccination, the thought of herd immunity became the goal. It was always thought that once 80 percent of the population is vaccinated, we will be able to decrease the spread of COVID-19 and its many threats. However, with the chance of reinfection higher with the Omicron and it’s subvariants – even among the fully vaccinated – the herd immunity theory has slowly lost its momentum. Today, I will give my thoughts on the herd immunity theory and how we are progressing with COVID-19.
What is herd immunity?
Herd immunity is the protection from an infectious disease that occurs when a population is immune either through vaccination or immunity developed through a previous infection. If a country or area has herd immunity to a disease, it means a large proportion of that community becomes immune to the disease. Herd immunity makes the spread of the disease from person to person less likely. According to research, herd immunity is achieved when between 70 percent to 90 percent of the population is immune through natural infection or vaccination. However, this percentage depends on the disease and how infectious it is. Experts estimate that more than 80 percent of the population needs to be immune before we can safely say we have developed herd immunity from COVID-19.
Herd immunity via vaccination
Herd immunity can be reached via vaccination or by exposing enough people to the disease so that they have natural immunity. The World Health Organization emphasises that vaccination is the safer way to create widespread immunity to a pathogen. Communities with lower vaccine coverage may have outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases because the proportion of people who are vaccinated is below the necessary herd immunity threshold. Also, the protection offered by vaccines can wane over time, as is the case with Omicron. Research shows booster jabs are necessary to increase antibody levels, which reduces the likelihood of getting seriously ill from the variant. However, it seems that Omicron has thrown a wrench in the vaccination plans as vaccines are not as effective in preventing Omicron spread as they were with other variants.
Herd immunity via prior infection
Reaching herd immunity relies on enough people being infected with a disease and recovering from it. When you become infected with a virus, your body produces antibodies. These are disease-fighting proteins in the body that play a crucial role in the immune system. Antibodies detect infectious invaders such as bacteria and viruses and help the body eliminate them while providing protection against future infections. Omicron has infected most of the world’s population and is the reason why infections and deaths have slowed significantly. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to measure the population immunity levels from this since most countries do not have means of testing immunity levels in its entire population.
Will we reach herd immunity with COVID-19?
I do not think we will be able to reach herd immunity as was previously thought. Vaccination has not been as successful as desired and most countries still haven’t vaccinated 50 percent of their population. Additionally, the vaccine effects are not as long lasting and the need for boosters is complicating the situation even more. Omicron has thrown a wrench into the whole theory since it and it’s many subvariants, have proven to be vaccine evasive.
However, all is not lost, Omicron may have been a blessing in disguise. While it is more infectious, it is not as deadly as previous variants. As a result, it would have infected most of the world’s population and is the reason why cases are down in most countries currently. While there are new subvariants of Omicron circulating and causing infections, these infections are not as life threatening and is pushing us to a life with COVID-19 that is tolerable as life with the flu and common cold is. So, while it doesn’t seem that COVID-19 isn’t going anywhere soon, its threat level has decreased sufficiently for us to shift out of the pandemic; we are currently in the phase of figuring out how to live with it like we did with the flu, common cold, and so many other diseases.

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COVID-19: Will we ever reach herd immunity?

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