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COVID-19: The Pandemic is beginning to show signs of shifting to an endemic

Feb 20, 2022 Dr Zulfikar Bux, Features / Columnists

By Dr. Zulfikar Bux
Emergency Medicine Specialist

Kaieteur News – The Omicron wave has already peaked and we are rapidly heading to the bottom of the wave here in Guyana. While infections are still occurring at concerning numbers, Hospitalisations, which determine the impact of the disease, has dropped sufficiently to not be a threat to the health system. I believe that we still have a couple of weeks more before the number of infections from Omicron is no longer concerning. When that time comes, unless there is an unnatural occurrence, we should start to drift out of the pandemic and into an endemic state.
What is an endemic?
An endemic basically means the point at which an infection is no longer unpredictably disruptive. This doesn’t mean that it will not be deadly but the pattern of infections becomes more predictable that we can figure out ways to live with it. This virus will continue to mutate into strains that can evade our immune system but given its pattern thus far, it should not be strains that would be more deadly or more infectious. Should the SARS-CoV-2 that causes COVID-19 reach an endemic state, it will be the 5th human coronavirus to achieve this state. The other four coronaviruses that mostly cause the cold like symptoms that we have experienced over the years, offer short term immunity that lasts for about a year. It seems like COVID-19 will follow a similar trend where we are exposed to new strains every year causing seasonal cold symptoms. Hopefully, it weakens sufficiently to not be as life threatening as it currently is.
What are examples of endemic diseases?
The following are examples of endemic diseases that continue to be a threat to us:
• The Flu
• Common Cold
• Malaria
• Dengue
• HIV
• Cholera
• Typhoid
• Syphilis
As you can see, some of these diseases still pose significant threat to livelihood but there is some amount of stability and predictability in their spread to allow us to thrive with them.
When will COVID-19 become endemic?
While signs are encouraging, we still have to wait and see how things pan out. As it is currently, the huge amount of immunity driven by omicron infections and continuing vaccination efforts seems to be accelerating the transition to endemicity. The levels of immunity currently occurring will slow the spread of COVID-19 down sufficiently that it should weaken and become more predictable. Given the current trends, my best prediction is that we should see some amount of stability by the end of March then drift into endemicity by the third quarter of 2022.

When will life become normal again?
I am not sure that we can expect to go back to life as per normal before the pandemic. There will be a new norm where the mental health effects of the pandemic cause fluctuating behaviour patterns in different populations. Restrictions and lockdowns should come to an end in 2022 as we learn to live with this virus. The choice to wear masks will depend on individuals and their level of comfort around others. Some will be more vigilant and practice preventative measures while others will not. There may be a few flare-ups of infections but not threatening enough to overwhelm systems. Relaxation of COVID-19 measures will vary according to countries but I am optimistic that this will start to happen sooner than we think. We have learnt enough about COVID-19 and its time that we regain control of our livelihoods.

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