Ukraine could be precursor to what’s in store with next door neighbour

Feb 09, 2022 Editorial

Kaieteur News – The eyes of the world are fixed on what is happening in the Ukraine, given the standoff and escalating tensions, and the risks of such superpower stare down spiraling into dangerous territory. The world is also talking about what is at stake in the tense standoff that deteriorated into what was called a “bitter diplomatic brawl” between Russian and U.S. representatives at the United Nations Security Council on Monday, January 31. What Guyanese should be concerned about is what is increasingly taking on the shape of a new Cold War, which could bring its own troubles right in our backyard.

We say this because the U.S. and Russian confrontation over the Ukraine could be indicative of the type of low-level proxy conflict that makes its way over here in the Venezuelan-Columbian conflict. Though it is not at our border with Venezuela, but away on the southwestern side of Venezuela, it should still be a cause of concern for Guyanese, for we don’t want to be nearby when those giants tangle, be it through proxies on the ground, or via other means.
In October 1963, the Cuban missile crisis saw an earlier challenge and throw down over Cuba, which as tense as it was, did not alarm us too much, as that was a good distance away.
But whatever runs through Venezuela and impacts it is sure to make us look on nervously, given that two global behemoths could be locked in lengthy struggle. When superheavyweights tangle, little people are at risk of being in the crossfire; it is best that those things happen elsewhere, or to make oneself small to avoid being crushed. It doesn’t take a genius to recognise the probability of intensification of such bitter and unyielding postures to spread. It does not have to be limited to the Venezuela-Columbia border and the conflict between the two neighbours but could extend to the tempting gems of Venezuela, which is its oil in the Orinoco Basin and the Maracaibo fields. Let this truth be faced, if Venezuela was a barren wasteland, where proven oil reserves were concerned, then it would have barely gotten a passing nod of recognition from the big powers. Haiti, with its people mired in grinding poverty, stands as a case in point.

In contrast, the oil rich Caspian countries, and other independent republics of the USSR that came about in 1991 with the breakup of the Soviet Union have abundant oil in their fields. Western oil powers, with America lagging somewhat, want to get in there, and establish the biggest footprint possible. It has not been smooth sailing for American oil majors with sanctions hobbling them before, tilting the playing against them, and rendering them unable to compete on their terms. They constantly must play catch up with the French, Italians, and other oil companies of Europe. Though Ukraine cannot compare in oil reserves to the likes of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, its value is as a buffer between Russia and European states such as Poland and Romania. The United States has to take a stand, or risk looking unreliable and weak, if it doesn’t.

Similarly, though the Russians and Chinese have nurtured delicate and cozy relationship with Venezuela, notwithstanding U.S. sanctions, the Americans cannot allow encroachments from either of the two (or both) in this region. There is another point to consider, which increases the importance of Venezuela in the strategic considerations of the U.S. From all indications, America is losing ground in the oil rich Middle East, where it once held sway as the unchallenged king of the hill. Even Saudi Arabia, a once treasured relationship, has engaged with China, and partnered with Russia, leading to waning American influence. America has no welcome in Iran while its sacrifices in Iraq have not been rewarded to any great degree by the Iraqis. The Russians have serious issues with Western, especially domineering American, presences in its vast oilfields. Because of the sum of this, Venezuela, its locations, and its oil is of paramount importance. It cannot and must not be lost. The meaning of that is stark: what unfolds in Ukraine could be replicated there, to the worries of Guyana, because the effects could be felt here.

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Ukraine could be precursor to what’s in store with next door neighbour

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