Covid-19: Where is Omicron taking us?

Jan 30, 2022 Features / Columnists

By Dr. Zulfikar Bux

Emergency Medicine Specialist

Kaieteur News – We are now a month into the Omicron wave in Guyana and as I had predicted, we’ve peaked and our case numbers are coming down. As expected, there has been a rise in deaths and hospitalisations but not as significant as we saw with the Delta wave. We shouldn’t let our guards down yet, especially for those that were not infected. Today, I will share some updated data that is specific to Omicron so that we have an idea where we are and where we may be heading.

How is it behaving?
Omicron is easier to catch than any other form of the coronavirus and it’s the main reason why we are seeing unprecedented numbers of infections. It takes between 1- 3 days to exhibit symptoms after being exposed to Omicron while with the other variants, it was closer to 3- 5 days. However, its main site of infection is primarily our upper airways (nose, throat and trachea). This differentiates it from the other previous variants of coronavirus which all focused more on the lower airways especially the lungs. As a result, Omicron is less severe and seems to be paving a way for the virus to remain with us as an upper airway infection similar to the other common cold viruses.

How are vaccines responding to it?
Because of the numerous mutations in its spike proteins, Omicron is more evasive to vaccines than any other previous variant. However, the current vaccines are still holding up sufficiently against it to guard against hospitalisations and deaths. Someone who was fully vaccinated more than six months ago, only has 57 percent protection from being hospitalised with Omicron, while that level of protection increases to 81 percent if they were fully vaccinated less than six months ago. However, protection against hospitalisation with Omicron, ramps up to 90 percent if you have been given a booster vaccine. Therefore, at this point, vaccines are still holding their own against COVID-19.

What’s the outlook like for Guyana?
From the data, it seems that we are getting past the worst of the Omicron wave and the numbers are coming down. However, the numbers are still peaking in the outlying regions and this should continue for a week or so. As I previously stated, January would have been the most difficult month for this wave and we should start to see less and less of Omicron as February progresses. Unfortunately, lives are being lost but our experience has helped us to fare better than previous waves. I do see the cases flattening out by late February to mid-March and when we will move into the next phase of the pandemic. The hope is, that Omicron is the last the pandemic has to offer but we have to keep an eye on Omicron 2 which is beginning to emerge especially in parts of Europe and India

Will Omicron 2 hamper progress?
Omicron 2, better known as BA.2, is not a new variant but is a descendant that was formed when the original Omicron variant came out. Omicron 1(BA.1) and 2 were the main subsets of Omicron when it came onto the scene and are more like sisters rather than two different variants altogether. Omicron 1 took off and became the dominant version in the world but Omicron 2 is starting to show signs of dominance in a few countries. We are currently experiencing the Omicron 1 wave and authorities have designated Omicron 2 “a variant under investigation” in the UK. This means that there isn’t sufficient data to make conclusions on its threat to us. Experts are suggesting that it will most likely not infect those that were already infected with Omicron 1 and may lead to the creation of a smaller wave that infects those that were not infected with Omicron 1. Should this occur, we may see a small wave in infections but not to the level of Omicron 1 but this will give the impetus that may be needed to end the pandemic. Whatever the case, the virus is showing signs of weakening with respect to the severity of the disease that it causes and I am still optimistic that we should see the beginning of return to normalcy in 2022.