The AFC holds the key to Norton’s future

Jan 05, 2022 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

---

Kaieteur News – Aubrey Norton has made a tactical mistake in running for the leadership of the PNC/R, and succeeding, during the just-concluded Congress of the party. He appeared to have been pulled along by forces within his party whose main objective was to get rid of David Granger.
The elections of the Congress may have been fair but it was not free. The elections were part of the continuum of the rebellion which broke out in the party following David Granger’s decision to accept the declaration by GECOM which awarded the elections to the PPP/C.
Following Granger’s decision to abide by GECOM’s constitutional declaration and not to go along with those who felt that he should disregard the Constitution and remain in office, a rebellion broke out within the PNC/R. Granger’s decision to exclude almost the top leadership of the party from parliament fuelled further resentment and rebellion against him. But he clearly realised that the party had to look towards the future and the younger members had to be given the chance to represent the party in the National Assembly as part of the APNU+AFC.
The rebellion intensified with allegations that a number of ad hoc regional assemblies of the party had expressed no-confidence in the then Leader of the party. What occurred during the elections at Congress was merely a finalisation of this internal mutiny within the party.
The Leader’s address to Congress was not broadcast to the public as is usually done. Nor was the report by the General Secretary. In fact, the General Secretary had little to do with the elections.
Such rebellious conditions and the sidelining of the existing leadership do not lend themselves towards a free poll. The elections therefore represented the coup de grâce against Granger’s leadership.
While the new leader won by a landslide, the mandate was weak. A large percentage of eligible delegates did not exercise their right to vote. Norton’s victory was therefore not backed by strong mandate.
Despite winning the leadership of the party, Aubrey Norton is not the Leader of the Opposition. The PNCR/R did not contest the 2020 elections and therefore it is the APNU+AFC which is represented in the National Assembly.
The Alliance for Change (AFC) has now become a decisive player in the parliamentary Opposition. The AFC holds the key to the survival of the Leader of the Opposition.
There is reportedly a position paper presented to the leadership which recommends that the AFC break with the APNU. But this is easier said than done.
The Coalition which was elected to the National Assembly is one comprising the APNU and the AFC. The APNU, for all intents and purposes, is really the PNC/R. The only other party which is represented in the National Assembly, under the umbrella of the APNU, is the Guyana Action Party. One of the “cardboard” parties, the Working People’s Alliance, has withdrawn from the APNU.
For the AFC to withdraw from the Coalition at this stage would ensure that the parliamentary Opposition would in effect become the PNC/R. This would play into the hands of the existing leadership at Congress Place since any withdrawal of the AFC, at this stage, would make it easier for the Leader of the Opposition to be constitutionally removed since the PNC/R would hold all the cards in the National Assembly.
For the removal of the Leader of the Opposition, one-third of the Opposition members of the National Assembly have to indicate a loss of confidence in him. The Speaker has to then summon a meeting to determine whether the Leader of the Opposition should be removed. But it requires a vote of half of the opposition members for the Leader of the Opposition to be removed. It is in this context that the AFC’s support or non-support for the Leader of the Opposition becomes decisive.
Even though the AFC does not hold a majority of the Opposition parliamentary seats, its numbers act as a potential safeguard to prevent the toppling of the present Leader of the Opposition. So long as the AFC remains in the APNU+AFC, the present leadership of the PNC/R will have to muster half of those 32 members in the National Assembly. And even so, there is no guarantee that the Head of the List, David Granger, will recommend Norton as a member of parliament.
Norton’s failure to remove the Leader of the Opposition will backfire against him since there will continue to be two poles of power within the Opposition: one the Leader of the Opposition and the second, the Leader of the PNC/R.
Norton has played his cards too early. There is likely to be two more Congresses of the PNC/R before the elections of 2025. And unless Norton can assume full control of the parliamentary opposition he can find his influence and effect waning within his own party by the time 2024 comes round.
(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)

---

---