September reopening of schools is now doomed

Aug 19, 2021 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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Kaieteur News – The Department of Public Information reported the Minister of Health, Dr. Frank Anthony, as saying, “When we look across the spectrum…we have seen a decreasing trend in cases. So, the numbers generally have gone down a little bit and across the Regions we are seeing that.”
The facts do point to a decreasing rate of growth of cases. However, the number of active cases is increasing and has now surpassed the 1,000 mark. As at Tuesday August 17, 2021, the number of active cases stood at 1,043. Two weeks prior it had declined to 702, its lowest level since April. Since the commencement of August, there has been a steady and worrying increase.
Despite the decrease in the rate of growth of total cases this month, the death rate has not declined. Forty-one persons have died so far for this month which is barely over the half way mark.
This threatens to erode the slow reduction in deaths which occurred in June and July. In May, there were a staggering 99 deaths. But this declined by more than 20 percent to 78 in June and was followed by a marginal reduction to 70 in July. August is threatening to keep deaths in the 70 plus range which would represent a recession in the control of the pandemic.
The present number of active cases should be a forewarning to the Minister of Health that his problems are far from over. It should also be instructive to him that government’s one-track approach, depending almost exclusively on vaccination, will not bring an end to this pandemic.
The experience of other countries has shown that once around 50 percent of the population is fully vaccinated, the rate of vaccination falls appreciably because of vaccine hesitancy and vaccine resistance.
Guyana is nowhere near vaccinating 50 percent of its population. Guyana is dealing with its adult population and at last count only 31 percent of its population has been fully vaccinated and the rate of vaccination had slowed so dangerously low that the government was forced to implement stringent requirements to protect the rest of the population from the unvaccinated.
A Cuban Medical Brigade has arrived and it is reported that they are to be assigned to the Infectious Diseases Hospital which is the central institution treating serious COVID-19 cases. This is unfortunate that the Cubans are being given this high risk assignment. What will happen is that when the number of deaths climbs at the end of August, it will be the Cubans who will unfairly have to shoulder the blame for something which is not their responsibility.
The Minister of Health however has bigger problems. He has too many advisors and the government which he serves is hell-bent on resisting the implementation of even partial lockdowns or increasing the curfew hours.
New Zealand has had an amazing record in managing its COVID-19 outbreak. They have a population of almost five million persons, more than six times that of Guyana’s. Yet they have less than 3,000 cases. Guyana has 23,675, or more than seven times that of New Zealand.
New Zealand has 26 deaths. Guyana has 582. On Tuesday, after the discovery of one case (it turned out there were four on that day), New Zealand said it was locking the country down. But they are only locking down for a short period – short term pain for long term gain.
But not Guyana! Guyana is hell-bent on avoiding anything which would force non-essential businesses to close their doors for a short period. Instead, the burden is being shifted towards vaccination which cannot solve the problem. In fact, given the present number of active cases, we can now kiss goodbye to the reopening of schools in September.
Guyana needs to gets its testing right. PCR test results should by now have been available on the same day of the test. The regional capacity to undertake the tests should have been boosted to the point where each region could undertake the full testing process from swabs to results. Mass testing should long have been undertaken to determine the scale of infections. There is no estimate at present as to what percentage of the population is likely to be infected and this is because mass testing is not taking place to make such deductions. None of these things are happening. Also, there is no regional or community-based strategy to contain community spread.
If the government is so concerned about the effects of a lockdown on the business community, the least it can do is to move towards a four-day work week for public servants and public sector employees. Anyone familiar with the public sector will know there will be no loss of production and productivity by a four-day work week; the same work which is done in five and six days can be done in three or four days.
The government can also extend the curfew hours since it makes no sense having stricter control at workplaces but when workers leave their places of employ, they are openly mingling, unprotected, with friends and family, in the wards, villages and towns.
(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)

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