The Fourth Wave is here

Aug 13, 2021 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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Kaieteur News – The world appears to be in the fourth wave of the coronavirus pandemic. The recent surge in cases came as something of a surprise, since a few months ago, with vaccinations then on the uptake and deaths and new cases declining in countries with high vaccination levels, the indications were that the pandemic was coming to an end.
That prediction is being defied by the present surge in cases. In June this year, there were 409,715 new coronavirus cases in the United States. However, the number of new cases tripled in the month of July with 1,380,963 new cases.
Only 12 days have elapsed so far for August. Yet in 11 of those days, the United States recorded a total of 1,254, 445 cases. As a consequence, active cases which had been declining since mid-January began to increase again.
Fortunately, there has been no corresponding increase in deaths. This is evidence that vaccines are working. And from the available data, these vaccines are supressing the number of severe infections.
From all appearances, including statistically, the world is in a fourth wave of the pandemic. This most recent but less deadly wave has coincided with a slowdown in vaccinations in the United States. After a slow rollout, the US was able to vaccinate 51 percent of its population by the end of June. However, in July less than 54 percent had been vaccinated, indicating that the rate of vaccination was stalling.
The massive increase in new infections is correlating to this slowdown. Despite correlation not being causation, scientists are firm in their belief that increased vaccination will lead to less new infections, less severe illness and less deaths.
The Delta variant is being blamed as the principal cause of the present surge in cases, including in countries which have relatively high vaccination rates. Late last month, the World Health Organization announced that the Delta variant was triggering a fourth wave in the Middle East.
Canada is also now claiming that some of its provinces may soon experience a fourth wave.
The Delta variant is said to be responsible for the present increase in cases in many parts of the world including those with a relatively high percentage of their populations fully vaccinated. The countries with high levels of fully vaccinated persons include the United States (50.3 percent), Germany (55.6 percent), United Kingdom (59.6 percent), Italy (58.9 percent), Spain (62.4 percent), Canada (60.5 percent) and Israel (59.7 percent).
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says that the Delta variant is the predominant strain now in the United States. It is also the predominant strain in the United Kingdom and Germany and is dominant in Italy, Spain, Canada and, now, Israel.
One explanation for this surge in countries with relatively high vaccination rates is the high rate of transmission of the Delta variant. Some sources indicate that it is 40-60 percent more transmissible than the Alpha variant believed to have originated in the United Kingdom; and 200 percent more transmissible than the original virus believed to have originated in Wuhan, China.
Guyana is yet to confirm the variants which are circulating locally. The country lacks the technology to test for variants. But one top government official says that it is likely that the Delta variant is in the country.
Given the experience of other countries, vaccination alone may not be enough to stem the spread of the Delta variant. Israel which had a lead in vaccinations is now suggesting that a multi-model system including resort to lockdowns may have to be reintroduced, and booster shots provided to the immune-compromised and elderly.
This is an important warning for Guyana which like many other countries is relying almost exclusively on vaccinations to stem the pandemic and which is also now facing, as those countries are, high levels of vaccine hesitancy.
In a recent interview with the Guyanese Critic, second Vice President, Bharrat Jagdeo, said that 82.5 percent of the over 62-year population has been vaccinated. This is impressive but perplexing considering that high number of deaths of elderly persons.
The government should make it a priority to ensure that every single adult over the age of 50 is fully vaccinated. Unless this happens, the death toll will rise, despite the high rate of vaccination for 62 years and older.
It is truly amazing that four months after vaccination began in Guyana only 57 percent of the adult population has been vaccinated with one shot. But on March 2, on that one day alone, 70 percent of the adult population – young, old, healthy and infirm – came out and voted. On one day alone!

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)

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