The opening hours of shops, markets and supermarkets should be adjusted as an alternative to a lockdown

Apr 27, 2021 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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Kaieteur News – The COVID-19 Task Force has been paying sporadic attention to those bars, nightclubs and other entertainment spots which are in violation of the COVID-19 regulations. But are the majority of new coronavirus cases being spread through the activities of these places, or is there another more plausible explanation?
The Ministry of Health has been far from transparent in its reporting of the pandemic. The Citizen Initiative runs a daily billboard which provides far more information than the one which is put out each day by the Ministry of Health.
The Ministry is yet to answer whether there have been breakout cases in Guyana and whether any of the persons hospitalised or have died were vaccinated. This fact is necessary to check whether the vaccination is building up immunity sufficient to stop severe infections and deaths.
This is one of the reasons why persons are being encouraged to get vaccinated. They are being told that even if they get infected, they are not likely to require hospitalisation or even likely to die. This was repeated by a top government official as late as last Saturday.
If the Ministry of Health were more transparent, it would have been able to enlighten the public about how many of those who died or were hospitalised would have been vaccinated. This is the sort of evidence-based information, which is needed to inform decision-making in relation to the pandemic.
If the evidence, for example, found that the majority of those dying over the past month were persons who were not vaccinated, then this would point the authorities in the direction of ensuring that the most vulnerable are vaccinated. It would also mean that those dying have only themselves to blame for not being vaccinated.
On the other hand, if persons who have been vaccinated are among the dead, then this raises a different issue. One that is far more serious.
There have been calls for lockdowns. These calls are not without justification. Where infections spike, as they are doing at present in Guyana, the experience has been that vaccinations alone do not suffice. The United Kingdom for example has done a remarkable job in controlling both infections and deaths. And the main reason for this is because it also employed a lockdown during the rollout of its vaccination programme.
Some persons locally have suggested a two-week lockdown. The evidence from around the world, however, indicates that for lockdowns to be effective, they have to be protracted. No two-week lockdown is going to impact the pandemic. And it makes no sense to have a lockdown if there is no enforcement.
Enforcement has been the government’s Achilles heel. The COVID Task Force is targeting entertainment spots. But if it had evidence as to just where persons have been contracting the virus, it would have been in a better position to employ more targeted interventions. However, there has been no study done – or none is known to have been done – in relation to the sources of infections.
The speculation is that certain nightlife activities increase the risk and therefore this is where the efforts of the COVID-19 Task Force are concentrated. But if one were to go by what one observes, it would appear that many persons are hurrying home after work in order to fraternise the remaining time until the curfew kicks in at 10:30 pm.
It is staggering to see the number of persons on the roads between 5:30 pm and 8:30 pm. Many supermarkets are opening beyond 6pm and are being heavily patronised. Persons are visiting friends and relatives during the afternoon, rather than staying at home. While the bars are being frequented, one can have a fair assessment that the supermarkets, markets and shops are busier during the period 5:30 pm to 8:30 pm than are the beer gardens, bars and other watering holes.
Since it is not likely that the pro-business PPP/C government is going to entertain a lockdown, the other best option would be to insist that there be a restriction on the opening hours for shops, markets and supermarkets. These places should be asked to close their doors no later than 6pm, failing which they will be issued with a suspension Order.
Vaccinations will not achieve herd immunity. The Ministry f Health has calculated that it needs to vaccinate 85 percent of the population to achieve herd immunity. With 13,000 persons infected, it means that some immunity may be present in 1.7 percent of the population. To this must be added the 120,000 persons who have received first doses or 16 percent of the population. There are simply not enough vaccines available at present to reach anywhere near herd immunity.
Herd immunity of 85 percent is impossible to be achieved since 25 percent of the population are 18 years and younger, a category which does not qualify for vaccinations. The PPP/C therefore is practising some new forms of mathematics when it says it can achieve herd immunity by vaccinating the population.
In order to stem the local spread of the virus, vaccination must be accompanied by other measures. And since a lockdown is not favoured by the pro-business government, one possible alternative is to impose limitations on the hours of opening of shops, markets and supermarkets.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)

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