Coronavirus: The Brazilian variant is affecting the young at alarming rates; now is not the time to celebrate

Mar 28, 2021 Dr Zulfikar Bux, Features / Columnists

By Dr. Zulfikar Bux
Assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine, Vanderbilt Medical Center

Two weeks ago, I highlighted the situation in Brazil and my concerns for us in Guyana. Since then, our case numbers and death rates have surged and we are now in one of the deadliest and infectious months since the pandemic started. What is more alarming is the fact that this has not changed public behaviour much. Crowds are still gathering and there is improper or no mask wearing at all. Today, I want to expand more on the situation in Brazil as this is a pretty decent reflection of what may be coming our way if we continue to flout prevention measures as we are currently doing.

What’s happening in Brazil
Brazil currently has the highest number of COVID-19 related death in the world over the past two weeks. The numbers of infection and deaths are increasing daily and their hospitals are filled to capacity. Analysis of the data from the Brazil Ministry of Health shows that the number of people aged 30-59 represented about 27 percent of COVID-19 deaths over the past three months. State health officials in São Paulo, Brazil’s most populous state, said earlier this month that anecdotal testimony from doctors across the country about the severity of cases in younger people is backed up by their data. Officials said 60 percent of younger patients with COVID-19 needed ICU beds, a higher figure than earlier in the pandemic. Officials from the WHO are warning neighbouring countries to take precautions since they are very concerned that the mutated variant responsible for this devastation, can spread across borders and cause similar effects in other countries.
What’s to blame for the recent devastation?
The increase in both illness and death in younger people has coincided with the rise of at least one COVID-19 variant in Brazil. The so-called P.1 variant, which scientists say originated from Brazil, is widely agreed upon to be more easily transmissible, up to 2.2 times, according to a recent study. Experts also point to an increase in parties around the new year and Carnival holidays in the first part of the year. Younger people taking part in parties may simply have been more exposed as of late. This variant is more deadly, easier to catch and affects younger adults more than previous strains of the SarsCov2 virus. This is a recipe for disaster and it is exactly what we are seeing in Brazil.

The numbers are already alarming here
We have already seen an increase in cases and deaths in Guyana over the last fortnight. Whether this is from the Brazil variant or is from an excess in irresponsible behaviour, is yet to be determined. My concern is that it may be the former and the latter is responsible for its rapid spread. Common sense would dictate that we should not wait to find out, but get responsible and heed preventative measure before the situation really gets out of control. We have recently seen more deaths of younger persons than in any other period during this pandemic. The young adults here are getting hit harder with the disease than previously. Given what’s going on with our neighbouring territory, we should presume that a similar situation is evolving here and start to behave responsibly by adhering to preventative measures.

We need to pay attention to the upcoming religious holidays
Over the next eight weeks or so, Guyana will be observing Phagwah, Easter and Ramadaan. These are all periods where people gather in large numbers. Having large, uncontrolled gatherings during a pandemic surge is a recipe for disaster. I am pleading to all especially religious and community leaders to educate members in their community of the need to avoid gatherings and celebrations during this period as much as possible. The government has indicated that there will be sufficient vaccine to cover our population in 2021. We need to survive till then, and what we do during the next eight weeks or so, will determine our fate. If we act responsibly and curb the spread during this time, I am confident we would have bought sufficient time to get enough people vaccinated and bring the epidemic under control. On the other hand, irresponsible behaviour during this period may most likely lead to a devastation like we have never seen before.
I therefore ask that we mask up, get vaccinated and unite against gatherings for the next two months. If we do this and we do it well, I am optimistic that we will be able to see light at the end of the tunnel.

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Coronavirus: The Brazilian variant is affecting the young at alarming rates; now is not the time to celebrate

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