Venezuela’s recent action

Mar 12, 2021 Letters

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DEAR EDITOR,

Two Russian-made Sukhoi SU-30 fighter jets, remarkable for their speed, manoeuvrability, and versatility sent shivers down the spine of many Guyanese and left the elites in power and the military brass grasping for explanations of Venezuela’s recent act of bellicosity. But for Caracas, it was simply a message couched in a visual display of strength and resolve to the Guyana government and its people. For Guyana, it was an ominous sign, a harbinger of what might lie ahead.
Venezuela’s air incursion into “disputed” territory was both a provocative operation and a reminder to Georgetown of its military impotence. Aerial incursions are normally undertaken for reconnaissance purposes and to probe defences, but in this case, it was meant to provoke responses not just from Guyana, but from Washington. While Takuba Lodge loudly protested, Washington remained silent. And that silence not only emboldened Caracas that it can undertake future incursions with impunity, but it also telegraphed a powerfully anticipatory message to Maduro that the Biden Administration may not be prepared to come to Guyana’s aid in the event of escalating tensions between the two disputants.
President Maduro’s decision to order two fighter jets from the Bolivarian Military Aviation (AMB) to fly over Guyana’s airspace was not a miscalculation. In the first place, Maduro does not accept the 1899 Arbitral Award that Guyana is the legitimate owner of Essequibo, but rather that this territory was wrested from Venezuela and is in dispute.
It is now only a matter of time before Venezuela ups the ante. Guyana can expect more and more aerial incursions. And with each one, the chorus in Caracas will become louder and louder. And in the context of this cacophony of deafening exuberance, Maduro will make his move and truncate Guyana, finally bringing to an end an old and contentious dispute.
Guyana does not have the capability or the political will to defend “its” territory from a Venezuelan onslaught. Its military strength is minuscule compared with Venezuela. And its Army of nearly 5,000 men and women is woefully ill-prepared and ill-equipped to mount a challenge. This fact is not lost on Maduro. Maduro may be a risk taker but he is not crazy. He will not, for instance, drop bombs on Georgetown or attack or invade Guyana’s legitimate territory. Rather, he would seize what he claims rightfully belong to Venezuela. In the context of such a reality, what can Guyana do?
Brazil is the key to Guyana’s security and longevity as a sovereign state. Political leaders in Guyana have squandered opportunities in the past to forge and deepen Guyana’s relationship with Brazil. Time is not on Guyana’s side. Its leaders must act with alacrity as this is a life and death situation staring them in the face. The question is how to do this? Operationalizing this relationship would require, inter alia, two decisive and sustainable undertakings:
1. The Guyana government must embrace a bold venture of inviting and then awarding contracts and licences to Brazilian companies to come into what Venezuela refers to as the Zona de Reclamacion and establish extractive enterprises, particularly in the mining and hydro sectors. Giving away forest lands and other concessions to China or Russia, for example, does not augur well for Guyana’s security. Brazil is a technologically sophisticated country with an abundance of skilled people. It is eager and willing to explore and forge a closer relationship with Guyana. Look at it this way: if Brazilian companies are embedded in the Essequibo region with hundreds of their own citizens in situ, Brasilia will not stand by and allow Maduro to invade and take-over said territory.
2. Language holds the key to deepen this relationship. Guyana must make overtures to the Brazilian government, expressing its desire to introduce the Portuguese Language as the second language in Guyana, and requesting that Portuguese Language teachers be sent to all elementary schools. Guyana must further undertake to provide these teachers with housing and boarding and half their salary. The Brazilian government will pick up the other half. These details can be negotiated, but the important point is this: language is a cultural instrument and Brazil would be elated that a neighbouring state, Guyana, is ready and willing to adopt Portuguese as its second language. There is no better way to deepen this relationship and build bridges across the Takuba River. It will be a new day for Guyana and the first cock’s crow heralding and cementing this new relationship.
What can also rescue Guyana and buy some time would be an early and final decision by the ICJ in its favour, but such a decision would not dilute or eviscerate Venezuela’s claim to Essequibo. In the meantime, however, our political leaders should not wait to forge and tangibly solidify Guyana’s relationship with Brazil. Having joint military exercises with counterparts in Brazil will not cut it. That is woefully inadequate and myopic. And the reason? Maduro is not going anywhere, and if he should be replaced by Juan Guaido, that would spell disaster for Guyana. Finally, Maduro has the full support of all four branches of the Venezuelan military. His grip on power is solid. The doomsday clock for Guyana is ticking. It is two minutes to mid-night. And the Americans are not coming. Several years ago, the Kurds waited for promised military help from Washington, it never came, and Saddam Hussein slaughtered thousands of them. I was in Kurdistan for a year exactly eight years ago. And I heard and saw the anguish.

Yours truly,
Daniel K. Gibran

Editor’s Note – Venezuela’s claim on the Essequibo is not a legitimate claim, the boundary having long been established and accepted. Venezuela’s non-participation in the current ICJ case is an indication of the strength of Venezuela’s belief in the legitimacy of its own claim. Additionally, the US and other governments have expressed explicit for Guyana in the wake of the fighter jet incursion.

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