Coronavirus: Surviving the wave from the mutated strains may help us to see the light at the end of the tunnel

Feb 07, 2021 Dr Zulfikar Bux, Features / Columnists

By Dr. Zulfikar Bux
Assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine, Vanderbilt Medical Center

Kaieteur News – You may know by now that scientists have discovered many new mutations of the SarsCov2 (coronavirus) virus circulating. There are three of them in circulation that were recently discovered and are of concern to scientists. These three variants are responsible for the new wave of infections worldwide, and have taken the world through the most devastating phase of the pandemic. I suspect that we have not been hit by this wave as yet, but I worry that it’s near and will hit us harder than the previous ones. Today, I will delve into the possibilities that lie ahead for us with the new variants and hopefully, identify a safe path for us through this incoming dilemma.
Which variants should be of concern to us?
The more the virus spread, the more it will mutate into new variants and the higher the risk of it becoming resistant to vaccines. We therefore need to control the spread before vaccine resistant variants begin to form and we are stuck with COVID-19 for the long term. There are currently three new strains that are of concern, and are responsible for the new wave of infections worldwide:
● Variant B.1.1.7 first identified in the UK. This variant is more infectious and might be associated with an increased risk of death compared to other variants, but further research is needed.
● Variant B.1.351 first identified in South Africa. This variant is also more infectious but there’s no evidence that this variant causes more severe disease. However, early evidence suggests that the vaccines are not as effective on this variant as they are on others.
● Variant P.1 first identified in Brazil. This variant is also more infectious, and some evidence suggests that this variant might be less vulnerable to antibodies generated by a previous COVID-19 infection or a COVID-19 vaccine.
What lies ahead for us in Guyana?
There is a strong possibility that one or more of these strains will reach us in Guyana or is already with us. If this is the case, we can look at the effects in other countries that are currently affected to have an idea of what lies ahead here. If we do not act responsibly and we avoid guidelines, then we are bound to experience the worst phase of the pandemic. This will obviously cause more lives to be lost and pressure our system more than before. How we behave will determine how much we are affected by this deadlier phase of the pandemic.
Let’s learn from the last wave trend.
The last time we had a wave was between the August-November period of 2020 with October being the peak of the spread. I had warned then about the D614G mutation in Brazil and the possibility of a hinterland spike that may reach our mainland. It turned out that we did start with a spike in the hinterland communities close to Brazil and saw a spread to the mainland soon after. We then found the D614G strain as the main variant in our population. I am concerned that this may be the route that the new wave takes, if we are not responsible. Given the strict testing at the airports, there is a lower likelihood of the strains from UK and South Africa entering here than the one from Brazil coming across our borders in areas where there are unregulated movements. Should this occur, we will most likely see a similar pattern of spread to what occurred with the D614G mutation last year.
What we need to do to get to the end?
I’m not as worried about the virus as I am of our actions. The virus depends on us to thrive and spread and we have been irresponsible thus far. If we continue with such behaviours with the mutated strains, which are more infectious, then Guyana may face a devastation that it has not experienced before. We therefore need to ride this period out until there are sufficient vaccines available to help us exit the pandemic. I am of the firm belief that if we all behave responsibly and follow the guidelines by masking up, social distancing and practicing proper hygiene for the next 100 days, we can slow the spread sufficiently to prevent a deadly wave from the new strains.
So, I am asking you to do the 100-day challenge and encourage others to do the same. Let us all work together to delay the entry of the new strains, slow the spread of the virus and buy ourselves enough time so that we can let the vaccines kick in and help us exit this pandemic.

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Coronavirus: Surviving the wave from the mutated strains may help us to see the light at the end of the tunnel

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