The math concerning the vaccine

Dec 07, 2020 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

Kaieteur News- Two persons died from COVID-19 complications yesterday. One of the persons was only 55 years old.
Given the number of confirmed positive cases recorded this week and last week, it can be expected that more persons are going to die this week. The number of case is fluctuating on a daily basis like a yo-yo.
It is a complete waste of effort calling upon the PPP/C government to implement stricter measures in order to stem the cases. As far as the PPP/C is concerned, those who are dying have underlying conditions and are expendable.
Yesterday’s deaths are all the more regrettable considering that a vaccine is about to be rolled out in the United Kingdom starting on Tuesday. If only those persons who died could have avoided infection for the next two months, they may have stood a better chance because by then the vaccine would have reached Guyana, hopefully.
Hopefully is the operative word. The time it takes for the Ministry of Health to get things leaves one with the impression of a much too casual approach to the present health emergency. There is still no village-level response to the pandemic.
Considering the secret which the government is keeping from the population, this is all the more irresponsible. That secret is that the indigenous communities have been hardest hit by the pandemic as evident by the lockdown which have had to take place in such communities.
Apart from Bartica, the only communities which have been subject to lockdowns have been indigenous communities. But the government has been silent about what has been happening to the indigenous population whose infection rates are believed to be disproportionate relative to their share of the population.
The vaccine is not going to reach here in time to prevent more deaths. A lot more persons are going to die before immunization begins.
Like Guyana, the UK is leaning towards first vaccinating persons who are above the age of 80, the highest-risk group in the UK. The life expectancy in the UK is 81.5 years. The life expectancy in Guyana is estimated at 68.2 years.
Life expectancy, however, is not the criteria which is being used to determine who gets the vaccine first. The UK life expectancy happens to coincide with the age group which has been at the highest mortality risk for COVID-19. Thus, they are leaning towards commencing the immunization process by administering to persons over 80 years of age.
In Guyana, the high mortality group appears to be persons above the age of 55. But the country would probably need about 90,000 vaccines to immunize everyone in this age range. The problem is that the first batch of vaccines will probably not reach here until February and it will only amount to around 22,500 doses. This will be inadequate to vaccinate the over 55 year’s age group. It will probably barely do for the over 70 population.
The second dilemma concerns logistics. Guyana would be best advised not to get the Pfizer vaccine since this has to be stored at minus 70 degrees. Guyana simply has never stored any vaccines at this temperature and really given the country’s erratic power supply it is going to be a logistical nightmare for this vaccine to be stored and administered under these conditions would make it virulent.
Given the logistical problems associated with the Pfizer vaccine and the limited numbers which will first be given to Guyana, it may be best that Guyana tries to obtain the Moderna vaccine. This does not require rigid cold storage of the Pfizer vaccine. But if Pfizer comes, it should be given to the high-risk group first, but people will have to appreciate that only three percent of the population will be able to be vaccinated in the first instance.
What this means in practical terms, is that the vaccination is no silver bullet. And if we want to stop the infections and deaths, then, in the absence of government ordered and enforced but limited lockdown, the people will have to limit their movement until the end of next year at least.
There is no other. If people want to survive, they will have to be more careful. Because as far as the government and the business community is concerned, the economy takes precedence and those who are dying are simply expendable.
(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)

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The math concerning the vaccine

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