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Biden leads Trump by 11 points – Quinnipiac University Poll
By Kemol King
Biden campaign signs in Arizona
Kaieteur News – The most recent Quinnipiac University Poll released just one day before US Election Day has Democratic Presidential nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden leading Republican nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump by 11 points.
The poll gives Biden 50 percent of the likely vote and places Trump at 39 percent. It is the second highest lead Biden has held over Trump in Quinnipiac’s polls, behind the poll featured in its July 15 release, which showed Biden raking in 52 percent of the likely vote, to Trump’s 37 percent. All of the institution’s polls since September have placed Biden in the lead by at least 10 points, nationally.
The poll, conducted from October 28 and November 1 found that 49 percent of likely voters reported a favourable opinion of Biden, with 42 percent saying the opposite. The majority of likely voters (54 percent) reported an unfavourable opinion of Trump, with only 39 percent reporting to have a favourable opinion of him.
Notably, Quinnipiac said that only 27 percent of likely voters will cast in-person ballots on Election Day, while 37 percent reported casting or intending to cast ballots by mail or absentee ballot. Meanwhile, 35 percent reported voting or intending to vote at an early location.
This may have an impact on the result, because Virginia-based political scientist Dr. Mark Rozell has indicated that the COVID-19 pandemic has a political impact on voters. He had told foreign journalists during a September 21 briefing that persons likely to vote for Biden are more likely to wear masks and vote by mail than those likely to vote for Trump.
The survey reached 1,657 likely voters in Florida with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points, 1,440 likely voters in Ohio with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points, and 1,516 likely voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.
Quinnipiac’s most recent 2020 survey was directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D, who is the Director and Vice President of Quinnipiac University Poll. Quinnipiac is one of the most respected pollsters of nationwide and statewide opinion in the US.
The count of the actual results of the Presidential Election are not likely to be completed for a few days past Election Day, as the mail-in ballots arrive and are incorporated. So the election likely will not be called today.
“Will it be a tidy game, set, match on Tuesday night? Or should we brace for an agonizing and ugly overtime, further enflaming a divided and troubled country?” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy. “The Biden numbers lean toward the first scenario, but 2016 lurks in the memory of Democrats.”
In 2016, several pollsters had predicted Hillary Clinton would win the presidency. While those pollsters got it right that Clinton would win the popular vote – and she did, by nearly three million votes – the 2016 Democratic nominee lost the presidency to Trump, given the configuration of the Electoral College.
The College is a unique mechanism to the US, which decides the presidency based on the votes of delegates assigned to represent candidates in each of the 50 States and the District of Columbia.
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