Future Guyana

Sep 28, 2020 News

Ana Correia

Ana Correia is a Sustainable Development Master student who is interested in changing the way Guyanese think about and engage with the future. Her work on transformational change coupled with deep uncertainty about Guyana’s future led her to research the ways that societal change could be initiated. This project is part of her thesis which hopes to start a discussion about what Guyanese really want their future to look like, and what trade-offs they’re willing to accept. After interviewing people from all over the country, the following scenarios were developed. She wants everyone to read them and consider which parts of each they want (or don’t want) for their future so that we may start to build a vision for Guyana that we can all agree on and work towards together. On Saturday, we published the first two of the scenarios, coming out the project – today we publish the other two. Correia can be contacted at [email protected] or 222-2503. Illustrations are by Mary Fung-A-Fat.

Scenario Three – Glass Ceiling

It all started with the elections debacle of 2020. The scandal birthed a new wave of activism in Guyana, especially among the country’s youth. So aghast at the brazen lies and disregard for their voices, and so embarrassed by the mockery made of Guyana on the international stage, young Guyanese start to reject race voting and party loyalties and start to vote based on merit. They don’t want a figurehead to worship; they want change. The third-party coalition wins 5 seats in the 2025 election among a flurry of emerging parties. There is a new type of citizenship being bred here. People are tired of waiting for the government to “figure it out”. It’s time to take the reins. There’s even a women’s party this time around, much to the shock of… everyone. “Be the change”, amirite? They don’t win, but it just goes to show how much things are in fact changing.
2030 rolls around and elections are set for November. Campaign season is in full swing. “Keep the oil coming!”, “Shared governance for all!”, “Constitutional reform!”. We’ve heard it all before. But there’s a different tune chiming in this time as well, from the back, behind the noise. “We can’t win if we’re not right within”. It’s the women’s party. They say that they want to fix Guyana from the inside out. They want to tackle the racism that keeps rearing its ugly head every 5 years, our seemingly inherent lack of pride in our surroundings, the horrific domestic violence that continues to proliferate under the patriarchy, the heart-breaking mental illness that we refuse to even acknowledge, and our long-standing drug and alcohol abuse problem. The discussions are uncomfortable and they’re hard, but it’s time for us to finally have them. And they’re proposing some interesting solutions too:
– rehab programs over incarceration and homelessness;
– a nationwide educational clean-up campaign to address our incessant littering of plastic bottles which were exempt from the Single-Use Plastics Ban of 2021;
– a hotline for suicide prevention as well as anonymous helplines for both victims and perpetrators of family violence;
– safe havens where battered girls and women can go for support, community, protection, and help in learning skills to become financially independent;
– ‘Mental Health and Wellbeing’ as a part of the national school curriculum to teach our kids awareness and de-stigmatization, as well as other things like anger management, constructive coping mechanisms, and even yoga and meditation;
– and finally, a national deep healing exercise to address the racial tension. It’s supposed to be like a circle of trust where people may speak and be heard, air their grievances and be understood, and apologize and be forgiven. There will be no legal penalty for admitting a wrong or a bias, just a chance to come clean and heal, and maybe, hopefully, start to bridge the divide.
Women, young and old, are rallying behind them. Recognizing that huge support base and not wanting to risk their female votes, the young third parties propose a coalition. The women, knowing that Guyanese men would never vote them in on their own, accept. They can play this game too.
It’s now the end of August and the rains should be gone, but the weather patterns have been weird lately. A new tropical storm is brewing off the western coast of Africa but no one pays much attention. “Dem things don’t hit Guyana”, they scoff, ignoring completely that all the country’s drains are chocked full of bottles. But they’re wrong this time. It’s unprecedented. Guyana’s first hurricane; and we’re not prepared.
The super-storm dumps buckets over every inch of the country with the outer bands reaching as far as Rupununi. It’s the worst flooding we’ve ever seen. A week into it and we’re drowning. People have lost their roofs to the wind and their floors to the water. Lepto is beginning to spread. The president declares a national state of emergency and elections are postponed. And then, right when it seems like all we can do is despair, something amazing happens. The third parties, the government, and the opposition all agree to band together to execute a plan to distribute aid and help evacuate those in the worst affected areas. It’s almost as if once the pressure to win was off, they could really start focusing on what was important – the people. It’s the first time the country really sees what unity and solidarity in governance could look like… and it’s beautiful. Within 2 weeks, the worst of it is over; the water is still here but the people are safe and that’s what matters.
By November 2031, we’re ready to return to the polls, but this time, we’re trying something new. Along with the 65 seats in parliament allocated to the running parties, citizens will be invited to elect 6 nonpartisan members to ensure that any values or causes not advocated for by the major parties are still represented. For the first time ever, there is a real possibility for representation on things like LGBTQ+ and animal rights, the environment, gender equality, the elderly and the disabled. We love to see it. It’s a huge success for inclusivity and because it’s an opening for independent thinkers in parliament, a big opportunity for Guyana to start making some really progressive moves. It’s a close race between the incumbent and the women’s coalition but Guyana has spoken, and she is ready. The ladies win. It marks the beginning of a new era for women and young people in Guyana. After an entire history of being dismissed, belittled and ignored, they are finally rising.
With all the new expertise and forward thinking on board, Guyana transforms. There are so many backup plans and safety nets in place that when the oil market crashes in 2050, the rigs are the only thing to shut down. I guess there’s something to be said about female leadership after all. What do you think, Guyana? Are we ready?

Scenario Four – Greasy Palms

The contentious 2020 Mother of All Elections amidst the coronavirus pandemic left the country so emotionally exhausted that when the APNU+AFC coalition decided to go ahead with the election petition on the last day of August, we just didn’t have it in us. Sure, there were some people still carrying that axe to grind, and they took it to court and appealed every letter of every ruling, but most people just wanted to move on. Time to get out of this state of limbo and get back to work. The PPP puts their efforts into trying to build their vision of a rich and prosperous Guyana. The new young cabinet appointed by the president gives many people hope, however, the surprise election of the Vice President makes many others apprehensive. “Please don’t let them be the PPP of old”, they pray. Nevertheless, deciding to give them their fair chance, and not wanting to live in the past, the people wait to see what happens. But they have not forgotten.
The first order of business in 2021 is to kick off a few big infrastructure projects which they hope will secure their re-election come 2025. They decide that the Mahaica Gas Pipeline, the Essequibo Deepwater Harbour and the new Demerara Harbour Bridge are the best three to start with since there is significant synergy to be found in their simultaneous completion. The pipeline is intended to bring gas from the oil rigs onshore to aid in reducing the country’s energy costs, which will finally make things like manufacturing and agro-processing more feasible. Coupled with the access that will be provided by the new bridge, this will open up the whole of West Demerara for commerce and investment. The placement of the harbour in Guyana’s largest river will facilitate the efficient export of those value-added products. The environmental assessments are slap-dash and signed off on before anyone even has a chance to read them. They’re never even released to the public. But construction begins and is progressing at a decent pace, though it feels like every year there’s a bigger allocation of funds to the projects that no one can really explain. We got oil money now, though, so who’s counting? The bridge and the pipeline are completed just in time for elections and their plan is a success. They win again.
By 2027 the harbour is complete and is having a catalytic effect on trade in Guyana. Speaking English and being in such a convenient location to access Atlantic shipping routes, we become a conduit for trade between South America and the northern hemisphere. Brazilian soy and sugar, Peruvian copper and textiles, Columbian coffee, cocoa and you can probably guess what else are all passing through by the shipload. But it’s just business, man. We don’t care. Until little white baggies start being confiscated from 15-year olds in schools, and there are more and more people with addictions on the streets, but no rehab centres to help them.
The Ogle-Timehri and Linden-Lethem access roads are completed in 2030 and 2040 respectively. With the renovated airport now able to handle some real capacity, there’s an increasing number of South American flights and airlines servicing Guyana daily. There’s even a flight route to South Africa. We’re no longer at the mercy of Caribbean-Airlines’ exorbitant prices. Guyanese can actually travel, see the world. We thought we had a lot of foreigners when the oil started flowing but the past two decades have seen a huge influx of people, and honestly, they’ve only brought expertise and raised the bar. As one would anticipate, the tourism sector has transformed, with hotels and resorts scrambling to learn languages and raise their standards to meet outside expectations. All in all, it’s a good thing. We knew we needed to pull up our socks.
Economically, on paper, Guyana has never been better. Socially, the inequalities between rich and poor are pretty bad, but the people have cheap power and nice roads now, so their votes are secured. Environmentally, we’ve never been worse. The water in the Essequibo is becoming more and more polluted with all the ships passing through, and the dumping of contaminated reservoir water from the oil rigs is starting to affect our fish. They have a taste to them now that wasn’t there before. It’s not rank, it’s just… like chemicals. The pipeline is leaking and has been for a while, but with all the back scratching and palm greasing going on between Exxon and the government, cries from environmentalists and NGOs fall on deaf ears. More and more dead marine life starts washing up on our shores. The ibis are gone, and the mangroves are receding, but the spring tide is here. And without the mangroves to protect us, the sea wall doesn’t stand a chance. The first breach happens at Mahaica, but soon the entire coast is flooded. It’s bad, worse than 2005. And then, to make matters worse, our first oil spill happens after an accident with one of the vessels. Now would have been a nice time to have that Disaster Risk Management Academy that someone talked about a few decades ago. The Great Flood brings all economic activities on the coast to a sudden halt. Trucks can’t take produce to the harbour and all flights from Ogle are grounded. It also inhibits the EPA’s emergency response team getting out to the rig to stop the slick from spreading. The handling of the disaster is left completely up to Exxon, who simply sets the oil ablaze. “Nothing else made financial sense to us”, they explain. Classic.
When the water finally recedes, there are protests and petitions against the government’s handling of the situation. “Why weren’t we prepared for that?”, “Didn’t you see it coming?”, “How could you let them just burn it?”. But this is what we wanted right? To be rich over everything else. We didn’t care about the tradeoffs when the going was good but now we are forced to ask ourselves “Was it all really worth it?”. By the time the 2050 campaign season rolls around, construction on the Amaila Falls Hydropower Plant is almost complete. The petroleum market crashes later that year but thankfully our economy has diversified a lot since first oil. Financially, we’ll survive. However, with the environmental disasters still so fresh in people’s minds, parties may have to try a different tactic to win this time around.