What will it take for a lockdown, Frankie?

Aug 25, 2020 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

The Minister of Health must have some inkling of the total number of positive cases that it will take to revert back or to intensity the social restrictions which were first introduced in April of this year. The number of positive cases has more than doubled over the past three weeks since the PPP/C came to office.
The PPPC’s explanation is that it is doing more testing. That is true. Over the past three weeks the PPP/C has undertaken some 2,341 tests, a daily average of 106 tests as compared with the daily average under the APNU+AFC of 34 tests. The PPP/C therefore is testing at three times the rate of what the APNU+AFC was testing.
What is not true is a statement attributed on social media to one Leslie Ramsammy who claims that there were more tests done over the past three weeks than over the previous six months. The statistics do not bear this out. When the PPP/C came to office on 2nd August there were 4,893 tests done. The PPP/C has only increased this by less than half, not by more than 100%.
The Minister of Health should explain how he came to the conclusion that the increased in testing was responsible for the massive rise in positive cases. He should show statistically how increased testing has been proven to relate to increased cases.
If he provides the daily number of tests, both under the APNU+AFC and the PPP/C, along with the corresponding number of positive cases, this column will volunteer to undertake the statistical analysis to establish whether the Minister’s hypothesis can be accepted or rejected.
But testing alone, as was indicated in an earlier column, does not explain the significant rise in positive cases. One expects that with more testing, there will be an increase in the number of cases. When the APNU+AFC began to test persons other than those with one or more symptoms, the number of positive cases did rise.
But increased testing should lead to a lower rate of positive cases. Yesterday’s figures shows that one out of every five persons who tested is positive. A couple of days earlier it was one in every three persons.
This newspaper reported that most of the beds in the Intensive Care Unit of the Georgetown Public Hospital are filled. This is as good an example, as any, of the health system becoming overwhelmed.
But the government does not wish to see it that way. It says that it has established a standard treatment protocol so that all regional hospitals can now treat severe cases. That sounds nice to the ear but the authorities have not stated which of these other regional hospitals have Intensive Care Units.
The government’s priority appears to be to keep the economy open. But the experience of other countries is that as the economy opens, the number of cases skyrockets. So that should have been a non-starter in the country.
Active cases of COVID-19 are now to be found in every Region. A few months ago, there were at least two to three regions in which there were no active cases. There is now a COVID-19 epidemic throughout Guyana but with extremely high infection rates in Regions One, Seven and Nine. While Region Four has seen a massive surge in cases over the past few days, the per capita infection rate in Regions One, Seven and Nine far surpasses that of Region Four.
The PPP/C’s regional response has been to boost the ability of regional hospitals to treat patients. But this is because the PPP/C had no other choices. It cannot accommodate the number of persons requiring institutional isolation and therefore persons are being forced to isolate at home.
The Minister will not say that the surge in Region Four cases occurred, whether coincidentally or not, at the Presidential Inauguration ceremony. It is known that after that ceremony two Ministers tested positive and at least three media personnel did too. To what extent therefore has extensive contact tracing been done on those attending the inauguration?
The Minister of Health should indicate the benchmarks above which he will be prepared to order either an extended curfew or a total lockdown of hotspot regions. At the minimum he should ask his government to order a lockdown of Regions Four and Three until such time as the number of cases plateaus, keeping open only essential services and businesses.
He should also seek the advice of an epidemiologist. And while at it, he should present a calculator to that person in his Ministry who stated that the PPP/C has done more tests in the last three weeks than was done over the past six months.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)