The COVID-19 threat has not abated

Jun 16, 2020 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

The COVID-19 coronavirus is still out there. A spike in local cases can occur at any time unless the population is extremely careful. And the population is not being careful.
A fresh outbreak has occurred in China. More than 100 new cases have been recorded in Beijing in recent days. China may have presumed that the worst was over one month ago. The new outbreak shows how easy it is for a spike in cases.
Deaths from the coronavirus are still high. Last Sunday alone, more than 3,000 persons died around the world from the coronavirus. And more will die in the coming days because there are still 3.4 million active cases in the world.
The virus is easily transmittable from person to person. And therefore the risk of infection remains high in Guyana, especially with the limited reopening of schools.
When the coronavirus outbreak began in the United States last March, very few persons expected that the death toll would be as high as it eventually became. Everyone was alarmed when China recorded more than 3, 500 deaths. It would have been unimaginable three months ago that the United States, Spain, Italy, France, Mexico, Brazil, Belgium, India, Germany, United Kingdom, Iran and Russia would surpass the death toll in the world’s most populous state.
But that is exactly what has happened. The United States has registered more than 118,000 deaths. The models developed predict that more than 140,000 are going to die. It is projected that in excess of 20,000 more Americans are going to succumb in the next few weeks.
So far more than 438,000 persons have died worldwide. More are going to die. Brazil is now the epicenter of the virus and this is right next door to Guyana.
A spike in coronavirus cases is expected worldwide in the next two weeks. This is due to two main factors: the relaxing of social restrictions, including the reopening of schools and non-essential businesses and the after effects of the anti-racism protests in Europe and in the United States.
Closer to home many countries in the region are beginning to open up. They have had a better control of the virus than Guyana because their health ministries have carefully managed the situation. Trinidad and Tobago whose population is almost double that of Guyana has 123 cases with only eight deaths. Three weeks ago, they had 118 cases of which none were active. Guyana, in contrast had 48 active cases as at last Sunday.
The threat from the COVID-19 coronavirus is not yet over. The reproduction number is still far too high to allow for a full-reopening of the economy. But even with a full re-opening, certain measures will have to be put in place. Social distancing would still have to be practiced. The requirement that masks must be worn before anyone can enter a business will have to be maintained. It will have to be made mandatory for those using public transportation. Certain places of entertainment will have to remain closed until this threat is completely over. Better contact-tracing has to be put in place and the format of the daily health bulletins will have to be revamped.
The coronavirus threat is likely to increase from 1st July with the phased opening of the country’s airports. Most of the persons arriving from the United States are usually from New York. Despite the decline in the total number of coronavirus in New York State, it along with New Jersey still account for approximately 20% of the new cases in the United States. Until such time as the daily death toll in New York City and New Jersey is in double digits, no commercial flights, other than special charters which bring Guyanese back home, should be permitted.
At this point it appears safe to allow persons from the Caribbean but who have not travelled to and from North America or Europe in recent times to come to Guyana once they are certified free of the virus. Guyana has to take steps to protect itself against a spike in infections because any second wave will be more costly than the first wave.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)