President Granger cannot bear the full blame for not calling elections earlier

Jun 12, 2020 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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The APNU+AFC commissioned an opinion poll just after its loss of the no-confidence motion in December 2018. The person who heads the organization that conducted the poll for the APNU+AFC has now revealed that the APNU+AFC had a two percent lead over the PPP/C but hesitated in calling elections immediately after the no-confidence motion.
He feels this was a bad decision since the Coalition ended up spending months challenging the legality of the no-confidence motion. He feels the President’s indecision in not calling elections earlier contributed to the Coalition’s loss. By the time elections were called, the two percent lead had evaporated.
He attributes the blame for not calling the elections just after the no-confidence motion of President David Granger. The President however cannot be saddled with all the blame.
The President is not a one-man show. He belongs to a political party and that party would have had an input into the original decision to try some fancy mathematics rather than call elections within three months.
The Coalition must have been circumspect about going into an election with such a slender lead in the opinion polls. They may have thought that a two percent lead was too risky and therefore wanted to ensure a larger lead or to put other plans in place before calling elections.
The PPP/C had handsomely defeated the APNU and the AFC (they contested separately) in the 2016 and 2018 local government elections. The PPP/C had scored an emphatic victory and the APNU, notwithstanding its two percent lead in the opinion polls, many felt was not ready to go to the polls.
Another factor is pride and ego. The APNU and the AFC had originally accepted their defeat in the no-confidence motion. One Minister even told a gathering outside the National Assembly after the vote that the APNU+AFC had defeated the PPP/C before and would do it again.
Sometime afterwards, the APNU and the AFC decided there was another way. Notwithstanding reports that the passage of the no-confidence vote had mobilized and energized their bases, the APNU+AFC decided to try to rewrite the basic laws of mathematics so as to avoid the ignominy of having to cut its term short by one and one quarter years.
The Coalition went into the 2020 general and regional elections with the right strategy. According to the Department of Public Information, the opinion poll had indicated a 94 percent approval rating for the President among the supporters of the APNU+AFC. With this approval rating, there was no other alternative open to the Coalition than to make David Granger the showpiece of its elections’ campaign.
What the Coalition missed was the other aspect of the opinion poll. It was also reported that the President’s overall opinion rating nationally was only 50%. This should have raised red flags that the Coalition had to do much more work in winning crossover and undecided voters. It did not and paid the price.
If there is any person to blame for the election loss, it cannot be the President. It is obvious that there was some misdirection within the Coalition’s campaign strategy. Enough was not done to win crossover and undecided voters.
The PPPC had been on the ground since 2015. The PPP/C concentrated in the 2016 general elections exclusively on regaining its traditional base. It successfully did this and convincingly won the popular vote in the 2016 local government elections after the APNU and the AFC ran one of the poorest campaigns ever. History repeated itself in November 2018 when the PPP ran away again at the local government elections.
It is against this background that the criticisms of President Granger should be re-examined. There were tactical errors during the campaign and the PPP/C outworked the APNU+AFC which made some bizarre choices as is evident from their lists of candidates. In some areas, some of the party comrades who could have made a difference were simply sidelined. This contributed to the APNU+AFC’s defeat.
The silly fight which was picked with the AFC destroyed whatever slim chances the Coalition had of winning the elections. The decision not to announce Khemraj Ramjattan as the Prime Ministerial candidate was a terrible signal to the AFC supporters that the APNU may renege on the AFC’s right to the Prime Ministerial slot.
In the final analysis, it was the loss of AFC votes to the PPP/C and especially to the smaller parties which cost the Coalition the elections. But who needs a good campaign strategy when you have the ‘Bingo’ man in your corner.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)

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