The lockdown may last 3 more months

May 02, 2020 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

Social distancing has to be intensified if Guyana is to avoid the impending calamity. With 82 confirmed coronavirus cases and nine deaths, Guyana is headed for a disaster unless there is improved leadership in managing the local spread of the virus.
Social distancing refers to people keeping at a safe distance – three to six feet- from each other outside of the home. But social distancing should also be encouraged within the home. It has been shown to slow the spread of the virus which is believed to be spread through person-to-person contact.
Guyana is into the fourth week of its partial lockdown. Little has been achieved at an enormous cost. Over the past four weeks, the economy has taken a serious hit. The country is about to embark on another month of social restrictions and it is important because it is time that this period is made to count.
Comments emerging from the Minister of Public Health indicate her frustration with the growth of the virus over the past 50 days. But the authorities cannot escape culpability. They have not been undertaking proper data-collection, which allows them to make informed decisions. They are, for example, unable to provide the reproductive rate of the virus – that is, the average number of persons each confirmed case would have infected. Without this figure, the authorities will not be in an informed position to determine when or how to ease the social restrictions.
Most of the countries in Europe, which are about to ease social restrictions, are not doing so because their economies are about to collapse. They are doing so based on an assessment of the reproductive rate of the virus. Once this rate falls below 1, then it is deemed safe to ease the social restrictions.
We can assume that given the rapid growth in coronavirus cases locally and the relatively high number of active cases, that Guyana is headed for a disaster unless serious action is taken to ensure social distancing over the next few weeks.
The Ministry of Public Health has indicated that Georgetown is the epicenter of the outbreak. It has not provided any numbers to allow for the public to understand just how many of the 82 confirmed cases were of persons residing in Georgetown. But Georgetown is the most densely populated area in the country and is likely to be the one to have the highest number of coronavirus cases and deaths.
The city’s markets remain the main culprits. Thousands of persons visit and assemble there every weekday. No social distancing is taking place at these markets and persons are still being allowed entry into the markets without masks.
The Mayor and City Council which is responsible for the administration of the markets must assume greater responsibility over the next few weeks for more stringent social distancing. No more than 50 persons (excluding stallholders) should be allowed into the market at any one time. No one – stallholder, vendor or buyer – should be allowed into the markets without a mask.
Vendors who sell outside the markets are not practising social distancing. They need to be regulated. The old practice of having vendors next to each other has to be abolished and replaced by social distancing.
The police have to be stricter with the public transport operators. They should establish strategic roadblocks to ensure that transportation vehicles are practising social distancing.
Non-essential businesses, which are flagrantly flouting the social restrictions; some of them are brazenly opening their doors; others are selling behind closed gates or grilled doors. All manner of trick employed to get around the regulations. This should not be allowed to happen. The culprits know themselves and should put themselves in order.
It was good to see that the Civil Defence Commission will be distributing 700 hampers to the disabled. There is no need at this stage for mass distribution of hampers. If you share out hampers to the public, those who need and those who don’t need them will both collect. Guyanese like freeness and most of the hampers will end up in the hands of those who do not need them.
Once the social distancing is practised, the lockdown can be eased within the next month. But unless social distancing is intensified, the lockdown will have to be extended by another two months. By that time, Sandy’s will become the leading business in the country.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)