Order the body bags!

Apr 24, 2020 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

Guyanese do not fully understand the extent of the human tragedy which is taking place around the world as a consequence of the coronavirus pandemic. Over the last fifteen days, there have been more than 400,000 confirmed cases and more than 27,000 deaths in the United States alone.
Over the past week, almost 12,000 persons have died in that country. This is more than one death and more than 20 confirmed cases every minute.
As frightening as these numbers appear, they understate the true extent of infections and deaths. CNN yesterday reported that based on anti-body testing, it is estimated that 13.9% of the population of New York State have contracted the virus and as many as one in every five New York City residents either have or have contracted the virus.
With a population of 19.4 M persons, the random testing done suggests that almost 2.7 million New Yorkers have the virus. In New York City – where thousands of Guyanese live – as many as 2 million persons may have contracted the virus. At present, the number of confirmed infections in New York State, the epicenter of the spread of the virus in the USA, stands at 268,581. The actual number of persons who have the virus or have had the virus is now believed to be ten times this number.
Guyana’s testing rate is extremely low. At present, there are 67 confirmed cases locally. Using the USA as a guide, we can estimate that we may have at present more than 700 persons walking around the country with the virus. Based on global estimates, 1/5 of these are likely to require hospitalization and 10% are likely to die.
Those who have rebuked in the name of God my suggestion that if Guyana’s death rate mirrors that of Spain, the death toll could be higher than 300, should take a look at this new data which is coming in. While it points to the fact that the actual death rate in the USA is likely to be under 1% of those infected, the number of infected is likely to be 9-10 times higher and therefore the total number of deaths is likely to be higher.
Guyana’s Ministry of Health, along with PAHO, has used a model which estimates that more than 20,000 Guyanese are likely to be infected if nothing is done to mitigate the spread. You do not need Mingo to do the Math to show if 5% of those infected die, what will be the final death tally. It will surpass, multiple times, the estimated 300 deaths if Guyana’s death rate approaches 416 deaths for every one million persons (the present death rate in Spain, which has a superior health system to Guyana).
There is no comfort to be found in the fact that Guyana only has 70 confirmed cases at present. Guyana’s 70 is higher than the Cayman Islands (66), Bahamas (65), Haiti (58), St. Martin 38, Antigua (24), Belize (18), Dominica (16), St. Kitts and Nevis (15), St. Lucia 15, Curacao (14), Grenada (14), St. Vincent and the Grenadines 13, all of which because of their tourism sectors are at higher risk of imported infections. Neighbouring Suriname, which shut down before they had a single case, only has 10 cases.
When therefore non-essential businesses, which continue to open their stores for customers despite the social restrictions in place, can be so barefaced to tell the media that they are not aware that they were not supposed to open, it shows the high level of irresponsibility of those who are putting a buck in front of a life.
Guyana has acquired some additional test kits, according to a report on Kaieteur Radio. The Ministry of Public Health should take about 150 of these and conduct a random sample of the Regions in which confirmed cases of the virus already exist. From this, it would be able to estimate exactly how many persons are infected throughout these Regions.
From that data, it would be able to determine how many body bags to order. The selfish and irresponsible behaviour of Guyana will mean that we may need far more than the Health Ministry estimated.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)