The grim economics of the virus

Apr 19, 2020 Editorial

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This is going to be one long, hard, harrowing grind of a time. The anxieties over eluding and surviving the coronavirus could soon be superseded by the dreadful economic realities that follow in its wake, and which are sure to bring shuddering from further deeper agonies. Increasingly, the worst of times are envisioned and actually publicly forecasted.
We have lost the space to play and to watch others at play. And when the ability to work and live a dignified existence is taken away, there is not much that is left. For when there come those lingering gruelling times where there is failure of hope, there is dashing of dreams, then for many life loses not only its settling anchors, but its guiding lodestars.
All of this is what stares in the face, with the grimmest of countenances. When to relax lockdowns, how quickly, or carefully and wisely, to reopen the economy, in which direction and at what rate, with what unconquered optimism to face the future and its near and far horizons. These are the fundamental issues, the daunting questions, that stare down in the most frightening of unmoving specters, the most chilling of realities.
Enormous business haemorrhages, unimaginable job losses, incalculable social and psychic anguishes, all form inerasable characteristics of the alarm bells ringing incessantly and at the highest volumes. We are not of the shrinking variety, but we falter, and have to dig deep for the confidence-inducing faith that buoys and floats to what we believe are rescuing shores. It is that we will find a way, have to find our way out of the immense stockpiles of debris that litter already and which must be cleared first before we can progress a single centimetre next.
A reeling world brought to its knees already calculates what is required to rise from the prostrations to which it has been lowered, forced. Returning to the beginning for some kind of restarting is sure to be the shakiest of undertakings, the hardest of traumatic struggles disabled by limited breath and severely diminished financial strength. Calamity piles upon catastrophe. But continue we must, if only to go on to something.
And that is the tiny morsel of companionship that we at this paper offer our fellow citizens, brethren all, at this most challenging of times. On Thursday last, the leading medical institution in Guyana says it is “preparing for the worst.” It is not alarmist, nor the ungrounded worrying of pessimists, but the reality of a very real threat. Neither should the warning from the private sector that “International sanctions could lead to decay -the death of business in six months -Deodat Indar” (KN April 16).
On Wednesday April 15th, the business-oriented Wall Street Journal spoke to the sanctions imposed by the virus in an article titled, “Economics versus epidemiology: quantifying the tradeoff.” It was an impressive work that charted “the rising economic toll of pandemic-induced shutdowns” and calculated the costs against the benefits of social distancing mandates brought to bear by the unrelenting weight of the state.
As the Journal noted, the work of economists “suggests that the benefits exceed the costs” but there remains “uncertainty” over that conclusion on the plus side. And from the BBC’s online edition of April 16th came this unsparing punch to the solar plexus: “Coronavirus: world economy may face ‘double recession.’” The lead sentence is sure to bring shivers, even to those not familiar with the history of its now century-old rampage that battered the world economies of 1929 and in the long decade thereafter. Rather ironically, the wreckage of Pearl Harbour lifted out of that gritty economic wilderness. That ominous first sentence reads: “The world economy already faces an economic downturn worse than the Great Depression.”
On the heels of that stark warning, the article went on to warn at a “possibly worse downturn” following and this is from no less an authority than the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU). These people know what they are talking about: huge sovereign debt arising from stimulus aid extended by governments leading to weak national balance sheets. The thinking from many sources and at many levels is that any recovery from the pandemic is sure to be slow, painfully gradual.
As the world goes, in its supply chains, the strength of its demand, the pace and depth of any recovery, Guyana is sure to go as well. In an increasingly interconnected world, we cannot escape unscathed, we will feel some considerable pain. And as much as we regret having to say so, it is almost guaranteed. The oil-on which we wasted so much passion and energy, its rich visions that fuelled so much quarrelling and fighting, and its politics that so grievously divided us – faces the most upheaving of volatile futures going forward. The high widespread demand that pushed prices upward has all but collapsed.
Our hope and plea at this paper is for some semblance of sanity to succeed in bringing us together, if only for us to consider other possibilities. This virus has opened our eyes, it should potentially devastate our purses, and lay bare our pantries and pots. Out of nothing, there has to come the resolve to lift this society out of its unforgiving camps, to claw for a way out of the depths that maroon us and magnify our woes.
The technology is against us, the virus is against us, the finances are against us. This is the absolute worst time for us to be pitted against one another. In a canvas of worst-case scenarios, there is none worse. As there is consideration of all of this, the interests and inclinations must come for us to link minds and hearts to lead the way to a different light.
Let there be the most serious of commitments to do so now. Then actually do so and deliver us from the trials that hover. May we be sensible. May we be receptive and responsive to what is shared and strongly suggested on this Sunday.

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