Guyanese Voters need to wisen-up

Jan 13, 2020 Letters

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DEAR EDITOR,
I write with reference to Joey Jagan’s letter published in KN, January 11, titled: “A Third Force Coalition will not make an impact in upcoming elections”.
This is a most barefaced, cheap propagandist letter by the son of the founder of the PPP – part propagandising for Mr. Granger (not PNC specifically) and part bile-ing against what he perceives as the Communist PPP. Joey should be reminded that if the PPP is still or was once Communist, so too is/was the PNC. It was the PNC that established diplomatic, trade and cultural relationships with Cuba, North Korea and all the other Communist countries in 1976 and thereafter. PNC also made much use of Marxist jargon in their party doctrines and literature. In 1976, PNC government decreed the use of the word, Comrade, in addressing every citizen – in government correspondence as well as spoken. “Comrade” is an exclusively used word of Communist greeting.
Joey Jagan says: “Mr. Granger will win the next election handily because he is following a winning policy which will benefit our beautiful Republic”.
Joey did not say what that “winning policy” is. In any event, Guyana is still a place where there is not much of a Swing Vote. The vast majority of the electorate (at least 94%) votes on the basis of race. Racial bloc voting cannot expand beyond what that finite number is.
In all Free and Fair Elections (1964 and post 1992), PNC has always polled between 40 and 42.3%, because that is the precise proportion of African vote that exists in Guyana. How would the PNC increase that tally of votes to 51%?
In 2015, PNC/AFC got 50.5% of the votes. Clearly, AFC brought in at least 10%. There is a broad consensus now that AFC’s base of support has disappeared. I will say categorically that PNC could not have ascended to power in 2015 without the votes of AFC.
I have had many discussions with pollsters and knowledgeable folks in villages and towns of Guyana – all have said there has been no shift towards PNC. A retired Judge (still employed by the government) told me: “If the elections are free and fair, PNC cannot win the election”. Asked to explain, he said simply, “Too many people have lost their jobs since 2015. Too many are suffering”. Note his conditioning phrase: “if the elections are free and fair . . .”
Is there a perception that a PNC government will be a better manager of the oil industry and oil revenues? Pollsters tell me there is a perception among broad sections of the Guyanese people that the PNC government may have willfully renegotiated a bad oil contract in 2016 and kept it hidden from the public – until it was forced to reveal it. That Contract is a sell-out contract – no protections against padding of expenses (75% of revenue goes for Cost Recovery); 2% royalty is way below industry standards (royalty is paid on barrels “produced and sold”; what happens if they are stored and/or refined?). Guyana’s share of the profits (on paper) is 14.5%, after expenses of selling Guyana’s share of the profit-barrels, Guyana’s take will be more like 10%. With no ring-fencing (commingling of expenses between well-heads, no limit to carrying over expenses year-after-year) there is little or no chance that Guyana’s share of oil profits will rise significantly above the nominal 14.5% in the years ahead.
Guyana is being sold a lie, namely, that as the Oil Company recovers its layout costs, Guyana share of oil profits will rise year-after-year. There is nothing in the Contract and no pro-forma financial statements to show that Guyana will so benefit.
I would say to the Joey Jagans of Guyana: if Guyana had a normal electorate, namely, one that has a sizable pool of Swing Voters, PNC would be rejected at the polls for simply signing a sellout contract – and refusing to re-negotiate it.
I will say further that both PPP and PNC are not straight-up with the Guyanese people on these Oil Contracts. Both need assertiveness training to overcome their inferior complexes when negotiating with Oil Giants like ExxonMobil; both need to stiffen-up their spines and demand a Fair Deal Contract. Guyanese Voters need to wisen-up and reject both PPP and PNC for willfully failing to protect their patrimony.
This past Wednesday evening, in New York, I sat down for dinner and talks with Mr. Lennox Shuman (leader of Liberal and Justice Party) and a small group of Guyanese patriots. I heard Lennox say in unequivocal terms: If he wins a few seats in the upcoming elections, he will use his new-found influence in the chambers of power to demand a “review of the Oil Contracts”. Now that’s a promise of a winning policy statement and a sure endorsement from Oil Activists.
Change Party’s leaders Robert Badal and Nigel Hinds have also committed to demand a Fair Deal Contract. The #1 priority for the Guyanese nation in this election is to elect candidates who will commit to protecting their oil patrimony. Guyana received literally pennies on a ton of our bauxite ore, most of our gold had been smuggled out without paying royalties – now would our Oil resource meet the same fate? Elect candidates who will make sure Guyana gets paid fairly – not cheated – for its oil patrimony.
Strangely, only Joey Jagan thinks Mr. Granger is good for Guyana’s Oil industry even though Mr. Granger has all but vowed not to re-negotiate a demonstrably rotten contract.

Mike Persaud

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