Does the Ali candidacy have any bearing on the election outcome?

Sep 07, 2019 Features / Columnists, Freddie Kissoon

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A recent poll has as one of its findings that Irfaan Ali is not popular with PPP supporters, with preference for Anil Nandlall. I have not seen the other discoveries of the survey, and, in addition, there seems to be a dearth of information on the polling organisation.
This is Guyana, where foreigners and foreign-based Guyanese have an abysmally low estimation of the intelligence of Guyanese, so they feel any untenable proposition would be accepted. In my life as a social activist and media practitioner, I will never forget what happened at UG during the past three years. For a foreign-based Guyanese to have done the unacceptable things that he did for three consecutive years at UG tells you that people feel they can come to Guyana and heap any nonsense on this nation.
I would have expected at the press conference, the person who spoke would have given as many details about the organisation as possible. It is in those details the credibility of the organisation lies. Where it is located, who are its principals, who are the local facilitators? Guyanese have no such facts, but we are supposed to digest the findings.
I will not dismiss the contents of the survey, because people’s curiosities about the organisation may very well be answered by a public statement. So let’s wait. For now, let us contextualise one aspect of what the survey found – Irfaan Ali is not the choice of PPP supporters.
My question is what is the relevance to that in the context of the importance of the forthcoming general election? It is naïve to think that Ali is more presentable in Guyana than Anil Nandlall. Apart from Jagdeo, Nandlall is the face of the PPP, and he has established formidable credentials as a lawyer fighting cases for the PPP and winning them.
But will the disadvantage of Ali undermine the number of ballots for the PPP?
This is where a certain statement by the chief pollster of the organisation needs to be confronted. He said Ali is so unpopular with PPP supporters that it will enhance Granger’s chances the sooner the election is held.
I am not voting for Ali or Granger, and I have no comparative preference, but that statement is pregnant with naivety, with regard to Guyana’s political sociology. Ali as a non-starter cannot translate into votes for Granger, because the two ethnically-driven electoral worlds in Guyana do not meet. The PPP voters who prefer Nandlall will not give their votes to Granger.
How then will an earlier election benefit Granger? It cannot. Ali’s rejectionists will either stay home or give their ballots to third parties. It will help Granger in that sense. But it is not as simple as that. If Ali’s rejectionists stay home or give their preference to small parties, Granger may not benefit, because, like Ali, he has his acceptance problems too.
A private poll done by Caribbean pollster Peter Wickham (details of which were never published, so there are questions there too) finds that among APNU supporters, Granger has no challenger. But aren’t Ali and Granger both uninspiring and lacklustre leaders who may chase voters to the smaller parties?
I would like to see a group of independent academics debate the qualities of Granger and elucidate his leadership qualities.
Why Wickham found that Granger has no challenger is because that is the reality inside the PNC. The PNC has no one, including Granger, who can excite the Guyanese imagination. But since Granger is the incumbent, PNC members will feel it is hurtful to Granger to pinpoint another candidate (which they cannot do because there isn’t another candidate). In addition, the PNC will not want to take the chance of changing its leader at this time.
The reason why the survey found Ali was not the obvious choice is because Ali has serious challengers in the PPP, that PPP aficionados prefer. The PNC’s barrel is empty, so Granger squeaks in. How then can Ali’s presence, if the election is held very soon from now, benefit Granger?
From what David Hinds discovered (which he has put in writing the past three weeks) while holding meetings in African populated villages, is that there are redoubtable disappointments with the PNC’s performance in government.
I refer readers to my column of Wednesday, August 14, 2019, “The pathetic nonsense Granger’s British advisor uttered.” That British gentleman told the AFC’s executive members that they must emphasise the personality of Granger in the coming elections. He knows the weak link is Granger himself. Ali and Granger are going to make PNC and PPP supporters vote for the smaller parties.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper)

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