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Frederick Kissoon’s analysis of the upcoming elections is very simplistic
DEAR EDITOR,
Frederick Kissoon’s prediction that President David Granger and the coalition government will lose the upcoming elections is not new. He has said this on numerous occasions in the past. His most recent utterances were in his KN column on Monday, August 12, 2019, captioned: “I believe Johnson, Trump and Granger will lose”.
I am responding to him conscious, that unlike him, I am not a political freelancer. I, therefore, believe it is not prudent at this time for me to offer my thinking on the coalition’s road to victory. Instead, I will be limiting my response to addressing the weaknesses that are inherent in his analysis that lead to his conclusion.
Kissoon’s analysis to my mind is very simplistic. The following are some areas of weaknesses, which I perceive are in his analysis:
1) He has based his analysis on the premise that the AFC brought 7% of the votes the coalition received in the 2015 general and regional elections, and that those votes came from the Indian communities. According to Kissoon, the numbers for the AFC meant that only Indians supported the AFC. Such a proposition I believe, is erroneous.
In his column, Kissoon claimed that the AFC is now dead and will not bring any votes to the coalition at the upcoming elections. This is most unlikely. There is a real possibility that AFC at the forthcoming elections will retain some of their support at the expense of the PPPC.
2) While conceding that the PNCR will maintain its support in its African constituencies, Kissoon’s analysis assumes that the PNCR will be contesting outside the coalition and is incapable of making inroads in other areas of the country.
3) As far as Kissoon is concerned, there is no APNU faction that is capable (particularly at this time), of influencing voters in the upcoming elections. He is contending that the smaller parties: WPA, JFA, GAP and the NFA neither in their individual capacities nor collectively, bring votes to the equation. He, therefore, sees them as being, irrelevant.
4) In his dismissal of the smaller parties in APNU and his declaration that the AFC is of no consequence, Kissoon is subtly trying to reduce the elections to the old two-horse struggle, that is, a fight between the PNC and the PPP when in fact it is the coalition versus the PPP.
5) He is also denying the synergy factor as it relates to the APNU+AFC coalition and voters’ preference for coalition politics as against one-party politics.
6) Inherent in his reasoning is the contention that the coalition government’s 4 years in office will in no way contribute to it maintaining its 2015 support or, expanding that support when the elections are called.
6) Kissoon calculates that the PPPC will regain 100% of the Indian votes lost to the AFC and the coalition in 2015. His analysis gives the PPPC all the Indian votes that will be cast in the elections. He sees no demographic changes in the voting pattern in that community which can negatively affect that party.
7) In his assessment of the situation, he is convinced that neither the Justice and Liberty Party (JLP) of Shuman nor Ralph Ramkarran’s A New and United Guyana (ANUG), will make it to the polls, and are therefore not worthy to be considered of having any impact on the elections.
8) By inflating the AFC Indian votes in 2015, Kissoon gave the PPPC some percentage advantages that he knows it does not have. By doing that he has mistakenly assumed that he is best placed to create the impression that the task of the Coalition is more difficult than it is and justifies his prediction of the coalition losing the elections.
9) The above in my opinion is sufficient to challenge Kissoon’s prediction that President David Granger and the APNU+AFC coalition will lose the elections. My judgement is the coalition will prevail come elections.
In closing, it will be remiss of me not to acknowledge that Freddie Kissoon on this occasion demonstrated some degree of maturity when he conceded that he may be wrong that Granger will not win the elections.
Tacuma Ogunseye
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