The Wickham poll on the 2019 election result in Guyana

Aug 09, 2019 Features / Columnists, Freddie Kissoon

In March, the PNC commissioned a poll paid for by a certain well-known businessman associated with the 23-year reign of the PPP. The poll was locked away and that was the end of its life.
It was done by Caribbean pollster, Peter Wickham. It was a private poll and no need to have its contents discussed publicly.
In June, the AFC was preparing for its biennial congress. It was a public secret among AFC people that there would be a motion to nominate Khemraj Ramjattan for the prime minister slot at the next general election.
Moses Nagamootoo felt that if he publicizes a section of the poll it could result in delegates rejecting Ramjattan’s overture.
Given to Chronicle, the reporting described that Nagamootoo is the only choice among APNU+AFC voters to be the prime minister. But the monster was out of the lagoon.
The media arm of E-Networks had the poll and began to publish its contents. The Chronicle in its initial reporting on the Nagamootoo showing had indicated that more aspects of the survey will be released but it never happened.
In terms of the election results the survey gives the PPP 40 percent of the votes, the APNU+AFC 42. The incumbent rulers are short of nine percent to win a majority. Surveys on politics are time-bound processes.
Because events in life move swiftly and because the human mind is fickle, a poll result at the beginning of the calendar year on the likely winner of a general election will not produce the same figures six months later.
The reason is commonsensical – the ruling party can stumble, do something that shocks the nation, or be exposed for being undemocratic or venal. Here is Guyana, the question is; has the 42 figure moved down or up for the ruling regime and likewise the 40 number for the PPP since March?
The answer can only be in the opinion of the analyst because since March, I don’t know if another poll was undertaken by Mr. Wickham so we do not have more data to analyze.
So how can the PPP take 40 and make it 51 and the APNU+AFC take 42 and make it 51? I have made up my mind that the two largest tallies after the result will go to the PPP and APNU+AFC but I firmly believe none will make 51 percent.
My prediction is that there is going to be a minority presidency. The gigantic curiosity is who will come closer to the 51 number. I have to confess that I don’t have a definitive answer for that. As I see it, both Leviathans are equally poised to secure the minority presidency.
Here are brief notes on why I think the quicksand is spreading faster in the direction of APNU+AFC than the PPP. Before any analysis is attempted on the likely election results, the analyst should be mindful to remind readers that the 2015 configuration was a coat of varnish between the two major contenders.
The APNU+AFC picked up a regional parliamentary seat by virtue of one vote in Region Eight. The national numbers that separated winner from loser were less than 5000 ballots.
Psychologically, citizens tend to vent their anger move on the incumbent than the opposition. It is the policies of the incumbent that affect their lives. A simple demonstration should suffice. If Mary is robbed of her pittance when she collects her pay and she cannot buy that fried chicken to take home to her expectant kids, she will blame the crime spree on the government.
From March to August, it is my opinion that the quicksand is moving quicker in the direction of the front step of APNU+AFC. Space will not allow for an enumeration of factors. But here are a few examples. Each day that passes in Guyana, the disillusion grows that the incumbent has not opened the door to a better life that the PPP had shut tightly on the nation when in office.
This week a man who represented three generation of family members who supported the PNC, resigned from his party. The Danny family has long been active with the PNC since the days of Forbes Burnham. Dave Danny Junior has left the PNC citing the very disillusion referred to above. There is a crucial, small percent of voters that could make the difference as to who get closer to that score of 51.
This is the section that wants to see their leaders behave democratically. That section caused the PPP to lose by 5000 votes. Those votes in my opinion will not go to APNU+AFC this time around.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper)

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The Wickham poll on the 2019 election result in Guyana

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