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Granger retains support in PNC base
DEAR EDITOR,
President David Granger’s political opponents are underestimating or discounting his popular support in the base of the PNC, the leading party in the ruling APNU +AFC Coalition. The leader has retained his support in the base from 2015. If an election were to be called now, the incumbent President could very well win a plurality, if not an outright majority, and either way remain in office for another term. The opposition PPP is struggling to win back its traditional base that it lost in 2011 and 2015 while the minor parties face difficulties in gaining traction to make deep inroads into the base of the two major parties. The minor parties, like the PPP, are handicapped with limited resources while the Coalition enjoys the effects of incumbency.
A CADRES poll conducted last February showed the President with an approval rating of 94% in the PNC base. A NACTA poll I conducted in February also found the incumbent President with near unanimous favourability ratings in the Coalition base.
The February CADRES poll also found that 92% of the PNC base would like to see President Granger manage the coming oil economy. The February NACTA poll revealed that a majority of all voters was not pleased with the coalition’s handling of the economy. Finance Minister Winston Jordan had very poor ratings. But PNC supporters expressed overwhelming preference for the coalition and Granger’s leadership, over the PPP, to manage the economy. However, the nation overwhelmingly favoured Bharrat Jagdeo, over all others (including Minister Winston Jordan) to manage the economy saying the former President and Finance Minister knows how to create wealth, grow the economy, and increase prosperity.
In the latest survey I conducted earlier this month, the country is seriously polarized by ethnicity and political affiliation. The findings show President Granger has retained his support among the PNC base. There has been virtually nil cross over support for the PPP if an election were held now. Without cross over support, the PPP can’t win an election and with its base divided, the party could find itself in trouble in an early election.
The poll found that Jagdeo is very popular in the PPP base and among all other political figures as well. Aside from Jagdeo, Granger is the most popular political figure in the country.
Voters say they admire Jagdeo and prefer him as their President over others including Granger. But the constitution bars Jagdeo from running for President again. And he has not been able to transfer his voter popularity to other figures in his party. The PPP could very well run second in an election as happened in May 2015 unless there is a change in political strategy and support. There are many in the PPP traditional base who indicated they will not vote with some even saying they do not mind if Granger wins a free and fair election and oversee the energy economy. The PPP has not been very effective in winning over those voters sitting on the fence; the party had to undergo a lot of reforms if it is to re-attract the flock that left the base.
The fence sitters could redound to the benefit of Granger making him the most favoured political figure among potential Presidential aspirants. Those who underestimate or discount Granger’s support do so at their own peril. The coalition’s base is still behind President Granger.
Yours truly,
Vishnu Bisram (PhD)
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