CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS PROJECTED IMPACTS

Apr 01, 2019 News

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There is much to be said about the discussions of our climate, which have polarized the world into groups supporting the theory that Global warming is anthropogenic (human induced) and some with the intrinsic view that the climate just simply changes.
However, the scientific community has reached a consensus that the earth’s climate system is unequivocally warming, with temperatures averaging between 0.4oC and 0.8oC for the past 100 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected that global temperatures ca

n increase between 1.4 and 5.8oC by 2100.
In this regard, the impacts of exceeding 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels will vary in both space and time.

Impacts of climate change are not only as a result rising temperatures being a driver as many would be thinking, but multiple environmental drivers such as rising atmospheric CO2, shifting rainfall patterns, rising sea levels, increasing ocean acidification and extreme events which would include floods, drought and heat waves.
There is multiple trajectory of evidence that climate change has noticeable and often severely negative effects on people and their livelihoods, particularly where climate sensitive biophysical conditions and more so socio-economic and political constraints on adaptive capacities synergies to create high vulnerabilities.
The costs and benefits of climate change specifically on society are expected to vary widely both by location and magnitude (scale), however the net effects as a result of rapid warming are likely to be strongly negative.
These impacts can be either direct or indirect, but overall can have significant effects on our livelihoods and a realisation that we as a nation cannot continue as if it is Business as Usual (BAU).
Climate Change in a Guyana context
Hydro-meteorological events which also includes precipitation patterns, storm surges, more frequent and intense weather events and flooding as well as sea level rise are all indicators of a changing climate. With increased ocean warming, we also expect to have more intense tropical cyclones developing within the Main Development Region (MDR) within the Atlantic Ocean.
Implicit in this is the acknowledgement that Guyana a mainland that has never experience a cyclone and in particular the Coastal areas would be affected by unusual strong winds coupled with heavier rains and storm surges which are not intense, but combined with the normal tides can increase water levels causing over topping of the seals and subsequent flooding.
This is significant considering that the capital (Georgetown) and a large percentage of the populace reside within close proximity to the shoreline, which results in greater vulnerability and the increased probability that the projected changes would generate more adverse than beneficial impacts on socioeconomic and biological systems.
The Caribbean, which Guyana is identified as, represents the minor share of global emissions output, contributing less than 0.01% and among the first to suffer from the effects of global warming.
While there is some dichotomy with reference to strategies, what is evident is the focus of our country and regionally should centre on adaptation, which is definitely not without its issues as improving the socioeconomic infrastructure whilst increasing resilience to climate change shall prove difficult.
The high cost of immediate adaptation measures, such as relocating vulnerable populations combined with the long time scales of treating the issues, provide substantial challenge for our government.
How can we respond to climate change?
 Mainstream climate adaptation strategies into national development agendas.
 Make resilience an integral part of national development and growth planning instead of as an add-on.
 Address climate change in national legislation, planning, policy (currently in progress as a draft), strategy, programmes, projects and budgeting.
This will require a significant transformational change in mindset, institutional arrangements, operating systems, collaborative approaches and integrated planning mechanisms across every sector.
The principal driver (barrier) to efficiency in taking climate-smart action in decision making will be a positive (negative) mandate from Ministers, policy makers, politicians and senior government officials. This will only be secured if the economic, social, environmental and therefore political challenges of current climate variability and climate change are recognised and acted upon as an integral element of national development planning. (Forrest Smartt)
[email protected]

 

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