March 21st: Can we rise to the occasion?

Mar 17, 2019 Features / Columnists, The Story within the Story

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By Leonard Gildarie

Last week, it was all about billion-dollar businesses.
I travelled to Lethem, a town in Region 9 that borders with Brazil. Talking about westerns, Lethem does fit the bill. It is dusty, with winding roads and a bridge across the Takutu River that links Guyana to Brazil.
An ambitious project has been underway for five years now, long in the making. It is an industrial zone that will cater for entrepreneurs looking for a kick-start. It will include different zones to cater for light to heavy manufacturing. The project straddles over 70 acres, and Government is banking on it to help spark some life into Lethem and Region Nine. It is costing over $1B.
At Diamond, the Demerara Distillers Limited group commissioned a $1B, state-of-the-art warehouse for its subsidiary, Distribution Services Limited.
It is all part of the group’s US$50M expansion and modernization programme. DDL is planning to enter milk processing, build a solar farm and upgrade its blending facilities.
The Diamond estate straddles both sides of the East Bank public road and according to Winston Jordan, the Finance Minister, represents how successful the diversification of the sugar estates can be. I never really viewed it from that light. I must agree with him.
DDL has stood tall and delivered to its shareholders. Banks DIH has to be recognized too.
So here we have it, two major projects – one Government, the other is private sector.
I passed Friday at Houston, East Bank Demerara, and saw a number of young persons at a facility where heavy equipment, including cranes were parked. It appeared they were being briefed.
All along the East Bank, there is a mad rush for riverside properties and space for storage. It is by no means cheap. Investors have to comply with safety and security requirements that are consistent with the oil industry. You comply or you are out.
It means that investments initially will be heavy. But the dividends that will come are lucrative.
Businesses are taking the gamble, banking heavily on the emerging oil and gas sector. There is business to be had.
While Exxon is steaming ahead, and we could have oil before yearend, Repsol, CGX and others are charging forward also with their drilling programmes.
I know that more oil will be found offshore. It is inevitable. The technology is that good and the oil is that much.
So why is that all important?

BREWING
Well, there is a political situation brewing, and unless a resolution can be reached, we stand to take a few steps backwards from our gains.

There can be no illusions. If the current political trajectory continues, we have to buckle down and be ready for more time where our locals will not be happy.There is a heaviness that overshadows our country that has its origins in the current political impasse.
After March 21st, the Opposition is saying, the Coalition Government will be illegal. That is because 90 days would have elapsed since the December 21st no-confidence vote, and there would have been no elections as mandated by the Constitution when such a vote would have been carried in the National Assembly.
On the other hand, the Coalition Government insists that it believes the vote was not carried legally. It is testing the vote in the courts.
Already, the High Court has offered its opinion – the vote was good.
However, the Coalition is willing to go all the way to the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ). I rather believe that regardless how the Court of Appeal, which is hearing arguments now, rules, the case will go to the CCJ.
In the meantime, the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM), comprising commissioners from both the Government and Opposition sides, is unable to decide a date for polls.
President David Granger on Friday in a statement, said that there should be no cause for alarm and anxiety.
He says: “The Constitution of the Cooperative Republic of Guyana is sacrosanct and supreme; the independence of the Judiciary and the Elections Commission is respected and the National Assembly is functional. I am confident that, if these institutions are allowed to function without interference, the nation could expect a good outcome to the present situation.”
He said the National Assembly remains in session. The president also stressed that the Government’s legal right to appeal to the judicial branch to interpret certain issues relating to the no-confidence vote is enshrined in the Constitution.
He asserted that the legal challenges, in so far as the Government is concerned, were neither frivolous nor calculated to frustrate the implications of the no-confidence vote.
Of course, the electoral process must be credible, and free and fair elections are essential to representative democracy, the statement said. This is dependent in part on the integrity of the Official List of Electors. A contaminated list can vitiate the credibility of elections.
According to Granger, the resolution of the present political challenges requires collaboration.
He said that he is prepared to do his part to ensure credible elections within “…the shortest time possible” this year.
On the other hand, the Opposition is not willing to contemplate any delays. Any talks between both sides will have to centre on a date.

AN IMPASSE
So we have an impasse, a stalemate, if you will. Our feet are stuck in the quicksand, politically, and nobody is throwing a rope.
Looking in, the attention has been on the holding of elections.
Based on the current circumstances and rhetoric, I believe that there is a very real situation looming.
From indications, any elections now will not attract more than 50 percent for any party or coalition. This is because unlike 2015, where a number of persons crossed – there will be voting more along race lines. People will be upset with this. But not acknowledging this is like having your head buried in the sand.
We have a different situation than 2015.
If one is to take the figures of the past, some 44 percent of the voters are Indo-Guyanese, with about 38 percent Afro. I don’t think it has changed much. Some argue that hundreds of Indians migrated. I am not sure whether this will have that much of an impact.
So where are the other votes coming from to take any side over that 50 percent?
Well, I don’t think it will be so easy. I rather predict we are heading towards a minority government again, similar to the 2011 situation.
What are the answers?
I believe that the President has said it. There will have to be collaboration. There is much at stake here.
Any minority government will be unacceptable. Another no-confidence vote will always never be far from the horizon. We have find options, and find them fast. The legacies of both sides will be at stake.
We will have to put differences aside and find a way…there must be a way.

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